GFDL Prediction Models

SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research)

SPEAR was developed as a next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. In early 2021, SPEAR real-time seasonal predictions will be made available as part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and SPEAR decadal predictions will be made available as part of an international decadal prediction program through the UK Met Office (decadal forecast). Additional data from the SPEAR large ensemble, described in Delworth et al. (2020) will also be made available through the GFDL Data Portal in March 2021 (note: subset data from published papers to date is available at publication with details in each paper). Previously, the GFDL CM2.1 and FLOR models were used for real-time seasonal-to-decadal prediction and research.

SHiELD (System for High-resolution modeling for Earth-to-Local Domains)

GFDL scientists have developed a new “unified” weather modeling system, the System for High-Resolution Prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD). SHiELD is intended to demonstrate new capabilities of the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3), of weather-timescale physical parameterizations developed by GFDL and our partners, and of new approaches to high-resolution modeling.

SHiELD can be configured for a variety of applications — high-resolution short-range (0–60 hour), global medium-range (2–10 days), hurricane, and subseasonal (10–40 days) forecast models — in the same modeling system. This reduces the effort to implement and maintain such systems. Five separate modeling systems are replaced by one. In addition, this enables transfer of innovations and advances between forecast models, facilitating a truly seamless atmospheric modeling system. This system makes heavy use of variable-resolution global modeling, allowing a global model to efficiently zoom-in over regions of interest, so that forecasts of extreme weather that are currently limited to 1–2 days of lead time can be extended into the medium range and beyond.

Click here for experimental, real-time forecasts using SHiELD.