Qian, Yitian, Pang-Chi Hsu, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gan Zhang, Huijun Wang, and Mingkeng Duan, December 2023: Intraseasonal variability of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking and its impact on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 37(1), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0091.1179-197. Abstract
The intraseasonal variations in anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) events, which are characterized by synoptic-scale irreversible meridional overturning of potential vorticity over the North Pacific, and their modulations on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), were investigated in this study. Spectral analysis of the AWB frequency shows significant variability within a period of 7–40 days, closely linked to the subseasonal variability of the jet stream intensity. When the jet stream weakens at its exit region over the North Pacific, the AWB occurs along with an equatorward Rossby wave flux. This AWB is preceded by an intensified Rossby wave train across Eurasia 12 days earlier. Simultaneously, a high potential vorticity intrusion is advected in the upper troposphere from the North Pacific toward the WNP, and suppressed TC activities are observed over the WNP open ocean where decreased moisture and temperature, subsidence, and increased vertical wind shear prevail. In contrast, anomalously enhanced convection, positive relative vorticity, and ascending motion are found in the southwestern quadrant of the AWB, facilitating enhanced TC activities over the South China Sea (SCS). Further analysis indicates that the impact of the AWB on TC activities over the WNP is robust and independent of the tropical intraseasonal convection over the tropical Indian Ocean and SCS, even though it accompanies the increased AWB frequency.
Qian, Yitian, Pang-Chi Hsu, Hiroyuki Murakami, Jianyun Gao, Huijing Wang, and Mingkeng Duan, November 2023: Influences of ENSO and intraseasonal oscillations on distinct tropical cyclone clusters over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-07000-5. Abstract
Although the influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on basin-wide tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) have been widely recognized, how the seasonal and subseasonal anomalies of sea surface temperature and atmospheric ISO variations modulate different types of WNP TCs needed further examination, as addressed in this study. Using a fuzzy c-means clustering method, we objectively classified the WNP TCs into seven distinct clusters with different genesis locations and trajectories. The genesis numbers of all seven TC clusters revealed significant spectral variance at the intraseasonal timescale in the bands of 10–30 and 30–90 days. Based on the diagnosis of scale-decomposed genesis potential index, we found that the increase in ISO-related mid-tropospheric moistening plays the most important role in TC genesis for all seven clusters, while anomalous circulations (low-level vorticity and mid-level vertical motion) are secondary. The trajectories associated with straight-moving and recurving TC clusters are modulated by ISO-related steering flows. These modulations of TC activities by ISO vary with the phase of ENSO. The modulations of ISO are significantly greater for TCs generated in the southeast quadrant of the WNP in El Niño years than in La Niña years, while ISO imposes a larger impact on landfalling TCs occurring in La Niña years, which are changed by the low-level winds associated with ENSO conditions. The compound effects of ENSO and ISO on TC clusters provide useful sources of subseasonal TC predictability. Our statistical model using the information of ENSO and ISO shows skillful predictions of WNP TC genesis numbers and track distributions at the lead time up to 30 days.
Hsu, Pang-Chi, Yitian Qian, Y Liu, and Hiroyuki Murakami, et al., April 2020: Role of Abnormally Enhanced MJO over the Western Pacific in the Formation and Subseasonal Predictability of the Record-breaking Northeast Asian Heatwave in the Summer of 2018. Journal of Climate, 33(8), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0337.1. Abstract
In the summer of 2018, Northeast Asia experienced a heatwave event that broke the existing high-temperature records in several locations in Japan, the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. At the same time, an unusually strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was observed to stay over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on reanalysis diagnosis, numerical experiments and assessments of real-time forecast data from two subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models, we discovered the importance of the western Pacific MJO in the generation of this heatwave event, as well as its predictability at the subseasonal timescale.
During the prolonged heat extreme period (11 July to 14 August), a high pressure anomaly with variability at the intraseasonal (30–90 days) timescale appeared over Northeast Asia, causing persistent adiabatic heating and clear skies in this region. As shown in the composites of MJO-related convection and circulation anomalies, the occurrence of this 30–90-day high anomaly over Northeast Asia was linked with an anomalous wave train induced by tropical heating associated with the western tropical Pacific MJO. The impact of the MJO on the heatwave was further confirmed by sensitivity experiments with a coupled GCM. As the western Pacific MJO-related components were removed by nudging prognostic variables over the tropics towards their annual cycle and longer timescales (>90 days) in the coupled GCM, the anomalous wave train along the East Asian coast disappeared and the surface air temperature in Northeast Asia reduced. The MJO over the western Pacific warm pool also influenced the predictability of the extratropical heatwave. Our assessments of two S2S models’ real-time forecasts suggest that the extremity of this Northeast Asian heatwave can be better predicted 1–4 weeks in advance if the enhancement of MJO convections over the western Pacific warm pool is predicted well.
Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction at the extended-range to subseasonal timescale (a week to several weeks) is a gap between weather and climate predictions. The current dynamical prediction systems and statistical models show limited skills in TC genesis forecasting at the lead time of 1–3 weeks. A hybrid dynamical-statistical model is developed that reveals capability in predicting basin-wide TC frequency in every 10-day period over the western North Pacific at a 25-day forecast lead, which is superior to the statistical and dynamical model-based predictions examined in this study. In this hybrid model, the cyclogenesis counts for different TC clusters are predicted, respectively, using the statistical models in which the large-scale predictors associated with intraseasonal oscillation evolutions are provided by a dynamical model. A probabilistic map of TC tracks at the subseasonal timescale is further predicted by incorporating the climatological probability of track distributions of these TC clusters.
The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including 8 typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast‐oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, NICAM and MRI‐AGCM) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific, and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and MRI‐AGCM). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.
Yang, Ben, L Berg, Yitian Qian, C Wang, Z Hou, Y Liu, and Hyeyum Hailey Shin, et al., June 2019: Parametric and Structural Sensitivities of Turbine‐Height Wind Speeds in the Boundary Layer Parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(12), DOI:10.1029/2018JD029691. Abstract
Structural and parametric problems associated with physical parameterizations are often tied together in weather and climate models. This study examines the sensitivities of turbine‐height wind speeds to structural and parametric uncertainties associated with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. The sensitivity analysis is based on experiments from two perturbed parameter ensembles using the Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino (MYNN) and Yonsei University (YSU) PBL schemes, respectively. In each scheme, most of the intermember variances can be explained by a few parameters. Compared to the YSU parameters, the MYNN parameters induce relatively weaker (stronger) impacts on wind speeds during daytime (nighttime). The two schemes can overall reproduce the observed diurnal features of turbine‐height wind speeds. Differences in the daytime wind speeds are evident between the two ensembles. The daytime biases exist even with well‐tuned parameter values in MYNN, indicating the structural error. The YSU scheme better matches monthly mean daytime observations, partly due to the compensation among the biases in different wind strengths. Compared to YSU, MYNN generally better agrees with observations in both weak and strong wind conditions. However, the improvements accomplished for one condition by parameter tuning may degrade model performances for others, suggesting the relationships that link different conditions are not accurately represented in the parameterizations. Simulated biases due to structural errors are further identified by evaluating them for different time of day and locations. Ultimately, this study improves understanding of structural limitations in the PBL schemes and provides insights on further parameterization development.
Li, Z, K M Lau, V Ramanathan, Guoxiong Wu, Y Ding, M G Manoj, J Liu, Yitian Qian, J Li, Tianjun Zhou, J Fan, Daniel Rosenfeld, and Yi Ming, et al., December 2016: Aerosol and Monsoon Climate Interactions over Asia. Reviews of Geophysics, 54(4), DOI:10.1002/2015RG000500. Abstract
The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.
