Kuo, Yi-Hung, J David Neelin, C-C Chen, W-T Chen, Leo J Donner, Andrew Gettelman, Xianan Jiang, K-T Kuo, Eric Maloney, C R Mechoso, Yi Ming, K A Schiro, Charles J Seman, Chien-Ming Wu, and Ming Zhao, January 2020: Convective transition statistics over tropical oceans for climate model diagnostics: GCM evaluation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77(1), DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-19-0132.1. Abstract
To assess deep-convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-timescale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint-PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture-precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of GFDL AM4, NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJOTF/GASS project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial-temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean-atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation-CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, non-precipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.
Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in the atmosphere. Here we present a parameterization for ice crystal concentration and ice nucleation rate based on parcel model simulations for mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds, in complement to a previous parameterization for stratus clouds. The parcel model uses a singular (time-independent) description for deposition nucleation and a time-dependent description for condensation nucleation and immersion freezing on mineral dust particles. The mineral dust and temperature-dependent parameterizations have been implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere model AM4.0 (new), while the standard AM4.0 (original) uses a temperature-dependent parameterization. Model simulations with the new and original AM4.0 show significant changes in cloud properties and radiative effects. In comparison to measurements, cloud-phase (i.e., liquid and ice partitioning) simulation appears to be improved in the new AM4.0 model. More supercooled liquid cloud is predicted in the new model, it is sustained even at temperatures lower than -25 °C unlike in the original model. A more accurate accounting of ice nucleating particles and ice crystals is essential for improved cloud phase simulation in the global atmosphere.
We describe GFDL's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the pre‐industrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasi‐periodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
The clouds in southern hemisphere extratropical cyclones generated by the GFDL climate model are analyzed against MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO cloud and precipitation observations. Two model versions are used: one is a developmental version of AM4, a model GFDL will utilize for CMIP6, the other is the same model with a different parameterization of moist convection. Both model versions predict a realistic top-of-atmosphere cloud cover in the southern oceans, within 5% of the observations. However, an examination of cloud cover transects in extratropical cyclones reveals a tendency in the models to overestimate high-level clouds (by differing amounts) and underestimate cloud cover at low-levels (again by differing amounts), especially in the post-cold frontal (PCF) region, when compared to observations. Focusing on only the models, their differences in high and mid-level clouds are consistent with their differences in convective activity and relative humidity (RH), but the same is not true for the PCF region. In this region, RH is higher in the model with less cloud fraction. These seemingly contradictory cloud and RH differences can be explained by differences in the cloud parameterization tuning parameters that ensure radiative balance. In the PCF region, the model cloud differences are smaller than either of the model biases with respect to observations, suggesting other physics changes are needed to address the bias. The process-oriented analysis used to assess these model differences will soon be automated and shared.
In this two-part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part I, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode – with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice distribution – is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part II, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.
In Part II of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part I. Part II provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.
We define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, and high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. We find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.
Jiang, J H., H Su, C Zhai, T Janice Shen, Tongwen Wu, J Zhang, Jason N S Cole, K von Salzen, Leo J Donner, and Charles J Seman, et al., March 2015: Evaluating the diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric ice clouds in climate models using SMILES observations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(3), DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0124.1. Abstract
Upper tropospheric ice cloud measurements from the Superconducting Sub-millimeter Limb Emission Sounder (SMILES) on the International Space Station (ISS) are used to study the diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric ice cloud in the tropics and mid-latitudes (40°S-40°N) and to quantitatively evaluate ice cloud diurnal variability simulated by 10 climate models. Over land, the SMILES-observed diurnal cycle has a maximum at ~18:00 Local Solar Time (LST), while the model-simulated diurnal cycles have phases differing from the observed by −4 to 12 hours. Over ocean, the observations show much smaller diurnal cycle amplitudes than over land with a peak at 12:00 LST, while the modeled diurnal cycle phases are widely distributed throughout the 24-hour period. Most models show smaller diurnal cycle amplitudes over ocean than over land, in agreement with the observations. However, there is a large spread of modeled diurnal cycle amplitudes ranging from 20% to more than 300% of the observed over both land and ocean. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the observed and model simulated variations of ice cloud finds that the 1st EOF modes over land from both observation and model simulations explain more than 70% of the ice cloud diurnal variations, and they have similar spatial and temporal patterns. Over ocean, the 1st EOF from observation explains 26.4% of the variance, while the 1st EOF from most models explains more than 70%. The modeled spatial and temporal patterns of the leading EOFs over ocean show large differences from observations, indicating that the physical mechanisms governing the diurnal cycle of oceanic ice clouds are more complicated and not well simulated by the current climate models.
Su, H, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, and Charles J Seman, et al., April 2013: Diagnosis of regime-dependent cloud simulation errors in CMIP5 models using “A-Train” satellite observations and reanalysis data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(7), DOI:10.1029/2012JD018575. Abstract
The vertical distributions of cloud water content (CWC) and cloud fraction (CF) over
the tropical oceans, produced by 13 coupled atmosphere-ocean models submitted to the Phase 5
of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are evaluated against CloudSat/CALIPSO
observations as a function of large-scale parameters. Available CALIPSO simulator CF outputs
are also examined. A diagnostic framework is developed to decompose the cloud simulation
errors into large-scale errors, cloud parameterization errors and co-variation errors. We find that
the cloud parameterization errors contribute predominantly to the total errors for all models. The
errors associated with large-scale temperature and moisture structures are relatively greater than
those associated with large-scale mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and lower-level divergence.
All models capture the separation of deep and shallow clouds in distinct large-scale regimes;
however, the vertical structures of high/low clouds and their variations with large-scale
parameters differ significantly from the observations. The CWCs associated with deep
convective clouds simulated in most models do not reach as high in altitude as observed, and
their magnitudes are generally weaker than CloudSat total CWC, which includes the contribution
of precipitating condensates, but are close to CloudSat non-precipitating CWC. All models
reproduce maximum CF associated with convective detrainment, but CALIPSO simulator CFs
generally agree better with CloudSat/CALIPSO combined retrieval than the model CFs,
especially in the mid-troposphere. Model simulated low clouds tend to have little variation with
large-scale parameters except lower-troposphere stability, while the observed low cloud CWC,
CF and cloud top height vary consistently in all large-scale regimes.
Using NASA's A-Train satellite measurements, we evaluate the accuracy of cloud water content (CWC) and water vapor mixing ratio (H2O) outputs from 19 climate models submitted to the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and assess improvements relative to their counterparts for the earlier CMIP3. We find more than half of the models show improvements from CMIP3 to CMIP5 in simulating column-integrated cloud amount, while changes in water vapor simulation are insignificant. For the 19 CMIP5 models, the model spreads and their differences from the observations are larger in the upper troposphere (UT) than in the lower or mid-troposphere (L/MT). The modeled mean CWCs over tropical oceans range from ~3% to ~15× observations in the UT and 40% to 2× observations in the L/MT. For modeled H2Os, the mean values over tropical oceans range from ~1% to 2× of the observations in the UT and within 10% of the observations in the L/MT. The spatial distributions of clouds at 215 hPa are relatively well-correlated with observations, noticeably better than those for the L/MT clouds. Although both water vapor and clouds are better simulated in the L/MT than in the UT, there is no apparent correlation between the model biases in clouds and water vapor. Numerical scores are used to compare different model performances in regards to spatial mean, variance and distribution of CWC and H2O over tropical oceans. Model performances at each pressure level are ranked according to the average of all the relevant scores for that level.
Li, J-L, D E Waliser, W-T Chen, B Guan, T Kubar, Graeme L Stephens, Hsi-Yen Ma, M Deng, Leo J Donner, Charles J Seman, and Larry W Horowitz, August 2012: An observationally based evaluation of cloud ice water in CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs and contemporary reanalyses using contemporary satellite data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117, D16105, DOI:10.1029/2012JD017640. Abstract
We perform an observationally based evaluation of the cloud ice water content
(CIWC) and path (CIWP) of present-day GCMs, notably 20th century CMIP5 simulations,
and compare these results to CMIP3 and two recent reanalyses. We use three different
CloudSat + CALIPSO ice water products and two methods to remove the contribution
from the convective core ice mass and/or precipitating cloud hydrometeors with variable
sizes and falling speeds so that a robust observational estimate can be obtained for
model evaluations. The results show that for annual mean CIWP, there are factors
of 2–10 in the differences between observations and models for a majority of the GCMs
and for a number of regions. However, there are a number of CMIP5 models, including
CNRM-CM5, MRI, CCSM4 and CanESM2, as well as the UCLA CGCM, that perform
well compared to our past evaluations. Systematic biases in CIWC vertical structure occur
below the mid-troposphere where the models overestimate CIWC, with this bias arising
mostly from the extratropics. The tropics are marked by model differences in the level of
maximum CIWC (250–550 hPa). Based on a number of metrics, the ensemble behavior
of CMIP5 has improved considerably relative to CMIP3, although neither the CMIP5
ensemble mean nor any individual model performs particularly well, and there are still a
number of models that exhibit very large biases despite the availability of relevant
observations. The implications of these results on model representations of the Earth
radiation balance are discussed, along with caveats and uncertainties associated with the
observational estimates, model and observation representations of the precipitating and
cloudy ice components, relevant physical processes and parameterizations.
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical-system component of earth-system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future, for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model.
Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud-droplet activation by aerosols, sub-grid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with eco-system dynamics and hydrology.
Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, than in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks and the intensity distributions of precipitation remain problematic, as in AM2.
The last two decades of the 20th century warm in CM3 by .32°C relative to 1881-1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of .56°C and .52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol cloud interactions, and its warming by late 20th century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed .66°C but did not include aerosol cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming in a way that is consistent with observed global temperature changes.
Phillips, Vaughan T., C Andronache, B C Christner, C E Morris, D C Sands, A Bansemer, A Lauer, C McNaughton, and Charles J Seman, June 2009: Potential impacts from biological aerosols on ensembles of continental clouds simulated numerically. Biogeosciences, 6, DOI:10.5194/bg-6-987-2009. Abstract
An aerosol-cloud modeling framework is described to simulate the activation of ice particles and droplets by biological aerosol particles, such as airborne ice-nucleation active (INA) bacteria. It includes the empirical parameterisation of heterogeneous ice nucleation and a semi-prognostic aerosol component, which have been incorporated into a cloud-system resolving model (CSRM) with double-moment bulk microphysics. The formation of cloud liquid by soluble material coated on these partially insoluble organic aerosols is represented. It determines their partial removal from deep convective clouds by accretion onto precipitation in the cloud model. This "aerosol-cloud model" is validated for diverse cases of deep convection with contrasting aerosol conditions, against satellite, ground-based and aircraft observations.
Simulations are performed with the aerosol-cloud model for a month-long period of summertime convective activity over Oklahoma. It includes three cases of continental deep convection simulated previously by Phillips and Donner (2006). Elevated concentrations of insoluble organic aerosol, boosted by a factor of 100 beyond their usual values for this continental region, are found to influence significantly the following quantities: (1) the average numbers and sizes of ice crystals and droplets in the clouds; (2) the horizontal cloud coverage in the free troposphere; (3) precipitation at the ground; and (4) incident solar insolation at the surface. This factor of 100 is plausible for natural fluctuations of the concentration of insoluble organic aerosol, in view of variability of cell concentrations for airborne bacteria seen by Lindemann et al. (1982).
In nature, such boosting of the insoluble organic aerosol loading could arise from enhanced emissions of biological aerosol particles from a land surface. Surface wetness and solar insolation at the ground are meteorological quantities known to influence rates of growth of certain biological particles (e.g. bacteria). Their rates of emission into the atmosphere must depend on these same quantities, in addition to surface wind speed, turbulence and convection. Finally, the present study is the first attempt at evaluating the impacts from biological aerosols on mesoscale cloud ensembles in the literature.
Transport of radon-222 and methyl iodide by deep convection is analyzed in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmospheric Model 2 (AM2) using two parameterizations for deep convection. One of these parameterizations represents deep convection as an ensemble of entraining plumes; the other represents deep convection as an ensemble of entraining plumes with associated mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts. Although precipitation patterns are generally similar in AM2 with both parameterizations, the deep convective mass fluxes are more than three times larger in the middle- to upper troposphere for the parameterization consisting only of entraining plumes, but do not extend across the tropopause, unlike the parameterization including mesoscale circulations. The differences in mass fluxes result mainly from a different partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation; the parameterization including mesoscale circulations detrains considerably more water vapor in the middle troposphere and is associated with more stratiform rain. The distributions of both radon-222 and methyl iodide reflect the different mass fluxes. Relative to observations (limited by infrequent spatial and temporal sampling), AM2 tends to simulate lower concentrations of radon-222 and methyl iodide in the planetary boundary layer, producing a negative model bias through much of the troposphere, with both cumulus parameterizations. The shapes of the observed profiles suggest that the larger deep convective mass fluxes and associated transport in the parameterization lacking a mesoscale component are less realistic.
We report model simulations of the effect of deep convection on aerosol under typical Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean as encountered during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). Measurements taken during various phases of INDOEX showed significant aerosol mass concentrations of nss-sulfate, carbonaceous, and mineral dust over the northern Indian Ocean. During the winter dry season aerosol species accumulate and are transported long distances to the tropical regions. In contrast, aerosol measurements south of the ITCZ exhibit significantly lower aerosol concentrations, and the convective activity, mixing, and wet removal in the ITCZ are responsible for their depletion. Our results, based on a cloud-resolving model, driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction analysis, show that convection and precipitation can remove significant amounts of aerosol, as observed in the Indian Ocean ITCZ. The aerosol lifetime in the boundary layer (BL) is of the order of hours in intense convection with precipitation, but on average is in the range of 1-3 days for the case studied here. Since the convective events occur in a small fraction of the ITCZ area, the aerosol lifetime can vary significantly due to variability of precipitation. Our results show that the decay in concentration of various species of aerosols is comparable with in situ measurements and that the ITCZ can act to reduce the transport of polluted air masses into the Southern Hemisphere especially in cases with significant precipitation. Another finding is that aerosol loading typical to north of ITCZ tends to induce changes in cloud microphysical properties. We found that a difference between clean air masses as those encountered south of the ITCZ to aerosol polluted air masses as encountered north of the ITCZ is associated with a slight decrease of the cloud droplet effective radius (average changes of about 2 :m) and an increase in cloud droplet number concentration (average changes by about 40 to 100 cm-3 ) consistent with several in situ measurements. Thus polluted air masses from the northern Indian Ocean are associated with altered microphysics, and the extent of these effects is dependent on the efficiency of aerosol removal by ITCZ precipitation and dilution by mixing with pristine air masses from the Southern Hemisphere.
Xu, K-M, R T Cederwall, Leo J Donner, W W Grabowski, F Guichard, D E Johnson, Marat Khairoutdinov, S K Krueger, J C Petch, David A Randall, Charles J Seman, Wei-Kuo Tao, D-P Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, J J Yio, and M Zhang, 2002: An intercomparison of cloud-resolving models with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement summer 1997 Intensive Observation Period data. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128(580), 593-624. Abstract PDF
This paper reports an intercomparison study of midlatitude continental cumulus convection simulated by eight two-dimensional and two three-dimensional cloud-resolving models (CRMs), driven by observed large-scale advective temperature and moisture tendencies, surface turbulent fluxes, and radiative-heating profiles during three sub-periods of the summer 1997 Intensive Observation Period of the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Each sub-period includes two or three precipitation events of various intensities over a span of 4 or 5 days. The results can be summarized as follows: #CRMs can reasonably simulate midlatitude continental summer convection observed in the ARM Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in terms of the intensity of convective activity, and the temperature and specific-humidity evolution. Delayed occurrences of the initial precipitation events are a common feature for all three sub-cases among the models. Cloud mass fluxes, condensate mixing ratios and hydrometeor fractions produced by all CRMs are similar. Some of the simulated cloud properties such as cloud liquid-water path and hydrometeor fraction are rather similar to available observations. All CRMs produce large downdraught mass fluxes with magnitudes similar to those of updraughts, in contrast to CRM results for tropical convection. Some inter-model differences in cloud properties are likely to be related to those in the parameterization of microphysical processes. #There is generally a good agreement between the CRMs and observations with CRMs being significantly better than single-column models (SCMs), suggesting that current results are suitable for use in improving parameterizations in SCMs. However, improvements can still be made in the CRM simulations; these include the proper initialization of the CRMs and a more proper method of diagnosing cloud boundaries in model outputs for comparison with satellite and radar cloud observations.
Donner, Leo J., Charles J Seman, Richard S Hemler, and Songmiao Fan, 2001: A cumulus parameterization including mass fluxes, convective vertical velocities, and mesoscale effects: thermodynamic and hydrological aspects in a general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 14(16), 3444-3463. Abstract PDF
A cumulus parameterization based on mass fluxes, convective-scale vertical velocities, and mesoscale effects has been incorporated in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Most contemporary cumulus parameterizations are based on convective mass fluxes. This parameterization augments mass fluxes with convective-scale vertical velocities as a means of providing a method for incorporating cumulus microphysics using vertical velocities at physically appropriate (subgrid) scales. Convective-scale microphysics provides a key source of material for mesoscale circulations associated with deep convection, along with mesoscale in situ microphysical processes. The latter depend on simple, parameterized mesoscale dynamics. Consistent treatment of convection, microphysics, and radiation is crucial for modeling global-scale interactions involving clouds and radiation.
Thermodynamic and hydrological aspects of this parameterization in integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM are analyzed. Mass fluxes, phase changes, and heat and moisture transport by the mesoscale components of convective systems are found to be large relative to those of convective (deep tower) components, in agreement with field studies. Partitioning between the convective and mesoscale components varies regionally with large-scale flow characteristics and agrees well with observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.
The effects of the mesoscale components of convective systems include stronger Hadley and Walker circulations, warmer upper-tropospheric Tropics, and moister Tropics. The mass fluxes for convective systems including mesoscale components differ appreciably in both magnitude and structure from those for convective systems consisting of cells only. When mesoscale components exist, detrainment is concentrated in the midtroposphere instead of the upper troposphere, and the magnitudes of mass fluxes are smaller. The parameterization including mesoscale components is consistent with satellite observations of the size distribution of convective systems, while the parameterization with convective cells only is not.
The parameterization of convective vertical velocities is an important control on the intensity of the mesoscale stratiform circulations associated with deep convection. The mesoscale components are less intense than in TRMM observations if spatially and temporally invariant convective vertical velocities are used instead of parameterized, variable velocities.
Redelsperger, J L., P R A Brown, F Guichard, C Hoff, M Kawasima, S Lang, T Montmerle, K Nakamura, K Saito, Charles J Seman, Wei-Kuo Tao, and Leo J Donner, 2000: A GCSS model intercomparison for a tropical squall line observed during TOGA-COARE. 1. Cloud-resolving models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126(564), 823-863. Abstract PDF
Results from eight cloud-resolving models are compared for the first time for the case of an oceanic tropical squall line observed during theTropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. There is broad agreement between all the models in describing the overall structure and propagation of the squall line and some quantitative agreement in the evolution of rainfall. There is also a more qualitative agreement between the models in describing the vertical structure of the apparent heat and moisture sources.
The three-dimensional (3D) experiments with an active ice-phase and open lateral boundary conditions along the direction of the system propagation show good agreement for all parameters. The comparison of 3D simulated fields with those obtained from two different analyses of airborne Doppler radar data indicates that the 3D models are able to simulate the dynamical structure of the squall line, including the observed double-peaked updraughts. However, the second updraught peak at around 10 km in height is obtained only when the ice phase is represented. The 2D simulations with an ice-phase parameterization also exhibit this structure, although with a larger temporal variability.
In the 3D simulations, the evolution of the mean wind profile is in the sense of decreasing the shear, but the 2D simulations are unable to reproduce this behavior.
A high-resolution limited area nonhydrostatic model was used to simulate sulfate-cloud interactions during the convective activity in a case study from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment, December 20-25, 1992. The model includes a new detailed sulfate-cloud microphysics scheme designed to estimate the effects of sulfate on cloud microphysics and radiative properties and the effects of deep convection on the transport and redistribution of aerosol. The data for SO2 and SO4(2-) species were taken from the Pacific Exploratory Mission West B observations during February-March 1994. Results show that a change in sulfate loading from the minimum to the maximum observed value scenarios (i.e., from about 0.01 to 1 µg m-3) causes a significant decrease of the effective radius of cloud droplets (changes up to 2 µm on average) and an increase of the diagnostic number concentration of cloud droplets (typical changes about 5-20 cm-3). The change in the average net shortwave (SW) radiation flux above the clouds was estimated to be on average -1.5 W m-2, with significant spatial and temporal variations. The horizontal average of the changes in the net SW radiation fluxes above clouds has a diurnal cycle, reaching typical values approximately -3 W m-2. The changes in the average net longwave radiation flux above the clouds were negligible, but they showed significant variations, typically between -10 W m-2 and 10 W m-2 near the surface. These variations were associated mainly with the changes in the distribution of cloud water, which showed typical relative changes of cloud water path of about 10-20%. Other notable changes induced by the increase of aerosol were the variations in air temperature of the order of 1°C. The case study presented here suggests that characteristics of convective clouds in tropical areas are sensitive to atmospheric sulfate loading, particularly during enhanced sulfate episodes.
Andronache, C, Leo J Donner, V Ramaswamy, Charles J Seman, and Richard S Hemler, 1999: Possible impact of atmospheric sulfur increase on tropical convective systems: A TOGA COARE Case In Proceedings of a Conference on the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) - COARE-98, WCRP-107, WMO/TD-No. 940, Geneva, Switzerland, WMO, 243-244.
Donner, Leo J., Charles J Seman, and Richard S Hemler, 1999: Ice microphysics and radiative transfer in deep convective systems In 10th Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, 28 June-2 July 1999, Madison, WI, American Meteorological Society, 611-614.
Deep convection and its associated mesoscale circulations are modeled using a three-dimensional elastic model with bulk microphysics and interactive radiation for a composite easterly wave from the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment. The energy and moisture budgets, large-scale heat sources and moisture sinks, microphysics, and radiation are examined.
The modeled cloud system undergoes a life cycle dominated by deep convection in its early stages, followed by an upper-tropospheric mesoscale circulation. The large-scale heat sources and moisture sinks associated with the convective system agree broadly with diagnoses from field observations. The modeled upper-tropospheric moisture exceeds observed values. Strong radiative cooling at the top of the mesoscale circulation can produce overturning there. Qualitative features of observed changes in large-scale convective available potential energy and convective inhibition are found in the model integrations, although quantitative magnitudes can differ, especially for convection inhibition.
Radiation exerts a strong influence on the microphysical properties of the cloud system. The three-dimensional integrations exhibit considerably less sporadic temporal behavior than corresponding two-dimensional integrations. While the third dimension is less important over timescales longer than the duration of a phase of an easterly wave in the lower and middle troposphere, it enables stronger interactions between radiation and dynamics in the upper-tropospheric mesoscale circulation over a substantial fraction of the life cycle of the convective system.
Donner, Leo J., and Charles J Seman, 1999: The role of ice sedimentation in the microphysical and radiative budgets of COARE convective systems In Proceedings of a Conference on the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE),, Boulder, CO, USA, 7-14 July 1998, COARE-98, WCRP-107, WMO/TD-No. 940, World Meteorological Organization, 227-232.
Mathur, M B., K F Brill, and Charles J Seman, 1999: Evolution of slantwise vertical motions in NCEP's mesoscale eta model. Monthly Weather Review, 127(1), 5-25. Abstract PDF
Numerical forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's mesoscale version of the eta coordinate-based model, hereafter referred to as MESO, have been analyzed to study the roles of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) and frontogenesis in copious precipitation events. A grid spacing of 29 km and 50 layers are used in the MESO model. Parameterized convective and resolvable-scale condensation, radiation physics, and many other physical processes are included. Results focus on a 24-h forecast from 1500 UTC 1 February 1996 in the region of a low-level front and associated deep baroclinic zone over the southeastern United States. Predicted precipitation amounts were close to the observed, and the rainfall in the model was mainly associated with the resolvable-scale condensation.
During the forecast deep upward motion amplifies in a band oriented west-southwest to east-northeast, nearly parallel to the mean tropospheric thermal wind. This band develops from a sloping updraft in the low-level nearly saturated frontal zone, which is absolutely stable to upright convection, but susceptible to CSI. The updraft is then nearly vertical in the middle troposphere where there is very weak conditional instability. We regard this occurrence as an example of model-produced deep slantwise convection (SWC). Negative values of moist potential vorticity (MPV) occur over rhe entire low-level SWC area initially. The vertical extent of SWC increases with the lifting upward of the negative MPV area. Characteristic features of CSI and SWC simulated in some high-resolution nonhydrostatic cloud models also develop within the MESO. As in the nonhydrostatic SWC, the vertical momentum transport in the MESO updraft generates a subgeostrophic momentum anomaly aloft, with negative absolute vorticity on the baroclinically cool side of the momentum anomaly where outflow winds are accelerated to the north.
Contribution of various processes to frontogenesis in the SWC area is investigated. The development of indirect circulation leads to low-level frontogenesis through the tilting term. The axis of frontogenesis nearly coincides with the axis of maximum vertical motion when the SWC is fully developed. Results suggest that strong vertical motions in the case investigated develop due to release of symmetric instability in a moist atmosphere (CSI), and resultant circulations lead to weak frontogenesis in the SWC area.
Convective clouds in tropical areas can be sensitive to the atmospheric sulfate loading, particularly during enhanced sulfate episodes. This assertion is supported by simulations with a high resolution limited area non-hydrostatic model (LAN) employing a detailed sulfate-cloud microphysics scheme, applied to estimate the effects of sulfate on convective clouds in a case study from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Results show that a change in sulfate loading for scenarios using the minimum to the maximum observed values produces a change in the average net flux of shortwave radiation above clouds. This time-average change was estimated between -1.1 and -0.3 Wm -2 over the integration domain.
Donner, Leo J., Charles J Seman, Richard S Hemler, and John P Sheldon, 1997: Radiative transfer in a three-dimensional cloud-system-resolving model In IRS '96: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation, Proceedings of the International Radiation Symposium, Fairbanks, Alaska, 19-24 August 1996. Hampton, Deepak Publishing, 109-112. Abstract
A three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic cloud-system-resolving model is used to study radiative transfer in convective systems. The model domain covers approximately 50,000 km2. Prognostic equations determine the evolution of liquid and ice mixing ratios. The three-dimensional distribution of liquid and ice is used in shortwave and long-wave radiative-transfer calculations.
A tropical convective system with a mesoscale anvil circulation is analyzed. The distribution of radiative forcing is examined, and its role in the evolution of the convective system is considered.
Donner, Leo J., Charles J Seman, and John P Sheldon, 1997: Cloud-radiative interactions in high-resolution cloud-resolving models In 9th Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, 47-48. PDF
Ice clouds associated with large-scale atmospheric processes are studied using the SKYHI general circulation model (GCM) and parameterizations for their microphysical and radiative properties. The ice source is deposition from vapor, and the ice sinks are gravitational settling and sublimation. Effective particle sizes for ice distributions are related empirically to temperature. Radiative properties are evaluated as functions of ice path and effective size using approximations to detailed radiative-transfer solutions (Mie theory and geometric ray tracing). The distributions of atmospheric ice and their impact on climate and climate sensitivity are evaluated by integrating the SKYHI GCM (developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) for six model months. Most of the major climatological cirrus regions revealed by satellite observations appear in the GCM. The radiative forcing associated with ice clouds acts to warm the Earth-atmosphere system. Relative to a SKYHI integration without these clouds, zonally averaged temperatures are warmer in the upper tropical troposphere with ice clouds. The presence of ice produced small net changes in the sensitivity of SKYHI climate to radiative perturbations, but this represents an intricate balance among changes in clear-, cloud-, solar-, and longwave-sensitivity components. Deficiencies in the representation of ice clouds are identified as results of biases in the large-scale GCM fields which drive the parameterization and neglect of subgrid variations in these fields, as well as parameterization simplifications of complex microphysical and radiative processes.
Donner, Leo J., Brian J Soden, and Charles J Seman, 1996: Use of ISCCP data to evaluate a GCM parameterization for ice clouds In International Workshop on Research Uses of ISCCP Datasets, World Climate Research Programme, WCRP-97, WMO/TD No. 790, World Meteorological Organization, 11.39.
Seman, Charles J., 1994: A numerical study of nonlinear nonhydrostatic conditional symmetric instability in a convectively unstable atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 51(11), 1352-1371. Abstract PDF
Nonlinear nonhydrostatic conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is studied as an initial value problem using a two-dimensional (y,z) nonlinear, nonhydrostatic numerical mesoscale/cloud model. The initial atmosphere for the rotating, baroclinic (BCF) simulation contains large convective available potential energy (CAPE). Analytical theory, various model output diagnostics, and a companion nonrotating barotropic (BTNF) simulation are used to interpret the results from the BCF simulation. A single warm moist thermal initiates convection for the two 8-h simulations.
The BCF simulation exhibited a very intricate life cycle. Following the initial convection, a series of discrete convective cells developed within a growing mesoscale circulation. Between hours 4 and 8, the circulation grew upscale into a structure resembling that of a squall-line mesoscale convective system (MCS). The mesoscale updrafts were nearly vertical and the circulation was strongest on the baroclincally cool side of the initial convection, as predicted by a two-dimensional Lagrangian parcel model of CSI with CAPE. The cool-side mesoscale circulation grew nearly exponentially over the last 5 h as it slowly propagated toward the warm air. Significant vertical transport of zonal momentum occurred in the (multicellular) convection that developed, resulting in local subgeostrophic zonal wind anomalies aloft. Over time, geostrophic adjustment acted to balance these anomalies. The system became warm core, with mesohigh pressure aloft and mesolow pressure at the surface. A positive zonal wind anomaly also formed downstream from the mesohigh.
Analysis of the BCF simulation showed that convective momentum transport played a key role in the evolution of the simulated MCS, in that it fostered the development of the nonlinear CSI on mesoscale time scales. The vertical momentum transport in the initial deep convection generated a subgeostrophic zonal momentum anomaly aloft; the resulting imbalance in pressure gradient and Coriolis forces accelerated the meridional outflow toward the baroclinically cool side, transporting zonal momentum horizontally. The vertical (horizontal) momentum transport occurred on a convective (inertial) time scale. Taken together, the sloping convective updraft/cool side outflow represents the release of the CSI in the convectively unstable atmosphere. Further diagnostics showed that mass transports in the horizontal outflow branch ventilated the upper levels of the system, with enhanced mesoscale lifting in the core and on the leading edge of the MCS, which assisted in convective redevelopments on mesoscale time scales. Geostrophic adjustment acted to balance the convectively generated zonal momentum anomalies, thereby limiting the strength of the meridional outflow predicted by CSI theory. Circulation tendency diagnostics showed that the mesoscale circulation developed in response to thermal wind imbalances generated by the deep convection.
Comparison of the BCF and BTNF simulations showed that baroclinicity enhanced mesoscale circulation growth. The BTNF circulation was more transient on mesoscale time and space scales. Overall, the BCF system produced more rainfall than the BTNF.
Based on the present and past work in CSI theory, a new definition for the term "slantwise convection" is proposed.
