Global Earth system models are often enlisted to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. In this study, we compare high frequency (daily) outputs of potential ecosystem stressors, such as sea surface temperature and surface pH, and associated variables from an Earth system model (GFDL ESM4.1) with high frequency time series from a global network of moorings to directly assess the capacity of the model to resolve local biogeochemical variability on time scales from daily to interannual. Our analysis indicates variability in surface temperature is most consistent between ESM4.1 and observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.93 and bias of 0.40°C, followed by variability in surface salinity. Physical variability is reproduced with greater accuracy than biogeochemical variability, and variability on seasonal and longer time scales is more consistent between the model and observations than higher frequency variability. At the same time, the well-resolved seasonal and longer timescale variability is a reasonably good predictor, in many cases, of the likelihood of extreme events. Despite limited model representation of high frequency variability, model and observation-based assessments of the fraction of days experiencing surface T-pH and T-Ωarag multistressor conditions show reasonable agreement, depending on the stressor combination and threshold definition. We also identify circumstances in which some errors could be reduced by accounting for model biases.
Barkan, Joel T., Jasmin G John, Elizabeth J Drenkard, and Drew Talley, December 2023: Ocean Discovery Institute’s model for empowering underrepresented students in STEM: Community-based, continuous belief. Oceanography, 36(4), DOI:10.5670/oceanog.2024.117.
Deposition of mineral dust plays an important role in upper-ocean biogeochemical processes, particularly by delivering iron to iron-limited regions. Here we examine the impact of dynamically changing iron deposition on tropical Pacific Ocean biogeochemistry in fully coupled earth system model projections under several emissions scenarios. Projected end-of-21st-century increases in central tropical Pacific dust and iron deposition strengthen with increasing emissions/radiative forcing, and are aligned with projected soil moisture decreases in adjacent land areas and precipitation increases over the equatorial Pacific. Increased delivery of soluble iron results in a reduction in, and eastward contraction of, equatorial Pacific phytoplankton iron limitation and shifts primary production and particulate organic carbon flux projections relative to a high emissions projection (SSP5-8.5) wherein soluble iron deposition is prescribed as a static climatology. These results highlight modeling advances in representing coupled land-air-sea interactions to project basin-scale patterns of ocean biogeochemical change.
We present the development and evaluation of MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 version 1.0, a 1/12∘ model of ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This model is built using the new regional capabilities in the MOM6 ocean model and is coupled with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) biogeochemical model and Sea Ice Simulator version-2 (SIS2) sea ice model. Our goal was to develop a model to provide information to support living-marine-resource applications across management time horizons from seasons to decades. To do this, we struck a balance between a broad, coastwide domain to simulate basin-scale variability and capture cross-boundary issues expected under climate change; a high enough spatial resolution to accurately simulate features like the Gulf Stream separation and advection of water masses through finer-scale coastal features; and the computational economy required to run the long simulations of multiple ensemble members that are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties and produce actionable information. We assess whether MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 is capable of supporting the intended applications by evaluating the model with three categories of metrics: basin-wide indicators of the model's performance, indicators of coastal ecosystem variability and the regional ocean features that drive it, and model run times and computational efficiency. Overall, both the basin-wide and the regional ecosystem-relevant indicators are simulated well by the model. Where notable model biases and errors are present in both types of indicator, they are mainly consistent with the challenges of accurately simulating the Gulf Stream separation, path, and variability: for example, the coastal ocean and shelf north of Cape Hatteras are too warm and salty and have minor biogeochemical biases. During model development, we identified a few model parameters that exerted a notable influence on the model solution, including the horizontal viscosity, mixed-layer restratification, and tidal self-attraction and loading, which we discuss briefly. The computational performance of the model is adequate to support running numerous long simulations, even with the inclusion of coupled biogeochemistry with 40 additional tracers. Overall, these results show that this first version of a regional MOM6 model for the northwest Atlantic Ocean is capable of efficiently and accurately simulating historical basin-wide and regional mean conditions and variability, laying the groundwork for future studies to analyze this variability in detail, develop and improve parameterizations and model components to better capture local ocean features, and develop predictions and projections of future conditions to support living-marine-resource applications across timescales.
Global ocean oxygen loss is projected to persist in the future, but Earth system models (ESMs) have not yet provided a consistent picture of how it will influence the largest oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical Pacific. We examine the change in the Pacific OMZ volume in an ensemble of ESMs from the CMIP6 archive, considering a broad range of oxygen (O2) thresholds relevant to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems (5–160 µmol/kg). Despite OMZ biases in the historical period of the simulations, the ESM ensemble projections consistently fall into three regimes across ESMs: an expansion of low oxygenated waters (+0.8 [0.6, 1.0] × 1016 m3/century for O2 ≤ 120 µmol/kg, ESM median and interquartile range); a slight contraction of the OMZ core although more uncertain across ESMs (−0.1 [−0.5, 0.0] × 1016 m3/century for O2 ≤ 20 µmol/kg); and at the transition from contraction to expansion regimes, a spatial redistribution but near-zero change in the volume of hypoxic waters (0.0 [−0.3, +0.1] × 1016 m3/century for O2 ≤ 60 µmol/kg). Changes in circulation and biology dictate the shift from expansion to contraction. Specifically, reduced subtropical ventilation controls the expansion of low oxygenated waters, while a combination of circulation and biological changes explains the contraction of the core (likely changes in mixing, reduced intermediate ventilation and oxygen demand). Increased model complexity (e.g., ecosystem dynamics and equatorial circulation) likely stabilize the OMZ response, suggesting that future changes might lie in the lower bound of current projections. The expansion of low oxygenated waters which delimit the optimum habitat of numerous marine species would severely impact ecosystems and ecosystem services.
Sudden shifts in marine plankton communities in response to environmental changes are of special concern because of their low predictability and high potential impacts on ocean ecosystems. We explored how anthropogenic climate change influences the spatial extent and frequency of changepoints in plankton populations by comparing the behavior of a plankton community in a coupled Earth system model under pre-industrial, historical 20th century, and projected 21st century forcing. The ocean areas where surface ocean temperature, nutrient concentrations, and different plankton types exhibited changepoints expanded over time. In contrast, regional hotspots where changepoints occur frequently largely disappeared. Heterotrophy and larger organism sizes were associated with more changepoints. In the pre-industrial and 20th century, plankton changepoints were associated with shifts in physical fronts, and more often with changepoints for iron and silicate than for nitrate and phosphate. In the 21st century, climate change disrupts these interannual-variability-driven changepoint patterns. Together, our results suggest anthropogenic climate change may drive less frequent but more widespread changepoints simultaneously affecting several components of pelagic food webs.
Ocean acidification is a consequence of the absorption of anthropogenic carbon emissions and it profoundly impacts marine life. Arctic regions are particularly vulnerable to rapid pH changes due to low ocean buffering capacities and high stratification. Here, an unsupervised machine learning methodology is applied to simulations of surface Arctic acidification from two state-of-the-art coupled climate models. We identify four sub-regions whose boundaries are influenced by present-day and projected sea ice patterns. The regional boundaries are consistent between the models and across lower (SSP2-4.5) and higher (SSP5-8.5) carbon emissions scenarios. Stronger trends toward corrosive surface waters in the central Arctic Ocean are driven by early summer warming in regions of annual ice cover and late summer freshening in regions of perennial ice cover. Sea surface salinity and total alkalinity reductions dominate the Arctic pH changes, highlighting the importance of objective sub-regional identification and subsequent analysis of surface water mass properties.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences phytoplankton in the tropical Pacific, with El Niño conditions suppressing productivity in the equatorial Pacific (EP) and placing nutritional stresses on marine ecosystems. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Earth System Model version 4.1 (ESM4.1) captures observed ENSO-chlorophyll patterns (r = 0.57) much better than GFDL's previous ESM2M (r = 0.23). Most notably, the observed post-El Niño “chlorophyll rebound” is substantially improved in ESM4.1 (r = 0.52). We find that an anomalous increase in iron propagation from western Pacific (WP) subsurface to the cold tongue via the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and subsequent post-El Niño surfacing, unresolved in ESM2M, is the primary driver of chlorophyll rebound. We also find that this chlorophyll rebound is augmented by high post-El Niño dust-iron deposition anomalies in the eastern EP. This post-El Niño chlorophyll rebound provides a previously unrecognized source of marine ecosystem resilience independent from the La Niña that sometimes follows.
Martínez Cano, Isabel, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Jasmin G John, Zoe S Aarons, Yan Yu, Benjamin Smith, and Stephen W Pacala, December 2022: Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(52), DOI:10.1073/pnas.2203200119. Abstract
Tropical forests contribute a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions essential to slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO2 and buffering climate change impacts. However, the response of tropical forests to more frequent weather extremes and long-recovery disturbances like fires remains uncertain. Analyses of field data and ecological theory raise concerns about the possibility of the Amazon crossing a tipping point leading to catastrophic tropical forest loss. In contrast, climate models consistently project an enhanced tropical sink. Here, we show a heterogeneous response of Amazonian carbon stocks in GFDL-ESM4.1, an Earth System Model (ESM) featuring dynamic disturbances and height-structured tree–grass competition. Enhanced productivity due to CO2 fertilization promotes increases in forest biomass that, under low emission scenarios, last until the end of the century. Under high emissions, positive trends reverse after 2060, when simulated fires prompt forest loss that results in a 40% decline in tropical forest biomass by 2100. Projected fires occur under dry conditions associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a response observed under current climate conditions, but exacerbated by an overall decline in precipitation. Following the initial disturbance, grassland dominance promotes recurrent fires and tree competitive exclusion, which prevents forest recovery. EC-Earth3-Veg, an ESM with a dynamic vegetation model of similar complexity, projected comparable wildfire forest loss under high emissions but faster postfire recovery rates. Our results reveal the importance of complex nonlinear responses to assessing climate change impacts and the urgent need to research postfire recovery and its representation in ESMs.
Xue, Tianfei, I Frenger, A Oschlies, Charles A Stock, W Koeve, Jasmin G John, and A E Friederike Prowe, June 2022: Mixed layer depth promotes trophic amplification on a seasonal scale. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(12), DOI:10.1029/2022GL098720. Abstract
The Humboldt Upwelling System is of global interest due to its importance to fisheries, though the origin of its high productivity remains elusive. In regional physical-biogeochemical model simulations, the seasonal amplitude of mesozooplankton net production exceeds that of phytoplankton, indicating “seasonal trophic amplification.” An analytical approach identifies amplification to be driven by a seasonally varying trophic transfer efficiency due to mixed layer variations. The latter alters the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and thus the zooplankton and phytoplankton encounters, with lower encounters occurring in a deeper mixed layer where phytoplankton are diluted. In global model simulations, mixed layer depth appears to affect trophic transfer similarly in other productive regions. Our results highlight the importance of mixed layer depth for trophodynamics on a seasonal scale with potential significant implications, given mixed layer depth changes projected under climate change.
Allen, Robert J., Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Fiona M O'Connor, Steven T Turnock, Sungbo Shim, Philippe Le Sager, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E Bauer, Lori T Sentman, and Jasmin G John, et al., February 2021: Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abe06b. Abstract
Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality—so called 'win-win' mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of −0.15 K by mid-century and −0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.
Gillett, Nathan P., Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, G Gastineau, and Jasmin G John, et al., January 2021: Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period. Nature Climate Change, 11, DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9207-212. Abstract
Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
Morgan, Eric J., Manfredi Manizza, Ralph F Keeling, Laure Resplandy, Sara E Mikaloff-Fletcher, Cynthia D Nevison, Yuming Jin, Jonathan D Bent, Olivier Aumont, Scott C Doney, John P Dunne, Jasmin G John, Ivan D Lima, Matthew C Long, and Keith B Rodgers, August 2021: An atmospheric constraint on the seasonal air–sea exchange of oxygen and heat in the extratropics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(8), DOI:10.1029/2021JC017510. Abstract
Typically, the surface of the ocean releases oxygen to the atmosphere during summer and takes it up during winter. This cycle is driven by circulation, biology (photosynthesis and respiration), and the seasonal cycle in water temperature, which changes the solubility of oxygen in surface water. We have used measurements of two atmospheric tracers, one which tracks oxygen and one which tracks heat, to estimate the amount of oxygen taken up or released by a change in ocean heat content. By looking at ocean models and atmospheric observations of the two atmospheric tracers, we find that the oxygen exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere is more responsive to changes in heat content than in the Northern Hemisphere. These hemispheric metrics are useful tests of how ocean models simulate some biological and physical processes.
Tebaldi, Claudia, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John C Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B Tokarska, George C Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald A Meehl, Richard H Moss, Susanne E Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin R Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, and Jasmin G John, et al., March 2021: Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. Earth System Dynamics, 12(1), DOI:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021253-293. Abstract
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.
Tittensor, Derek P., Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S Harrison, Ryan F Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Gregory L Britten, Matthias Büchner, William W L Cheung, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P Dunne, Tyler D Eddy, Jason D Everett, Jose A Fernandes-Salvador, Elizabeth A Fulton, Eric D Galbraith, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Jasmin G John, Jason S Link, Heike K Lotze, Olivier Maury, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M Petrik, Hubert du Pontavice, Jonathan Rault, Anthony J Richardson, Lynne Shannon, Yunne-Jai Shin, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A Stock, and Julia L Blanchard, October 2021: Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9. Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
July 2019 saw record-breaking wildfires burning 3,600 km2 in Alaska. The GFDL Earth system model indicates a threefold increased risk of Alaska’s
extreme fires during recent decades due to primarily anthropogenic ignition and secondarily climate-induced biofuel abundance.
Allen, Robert J., Steven T Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ülrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, J Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, M Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E Bauer, Louisa K Emmons, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, T Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, I Tegen, Daniel M Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona M O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T Sentman, Jasmin G John, S Fujimori, and William J Collins, August 2020: Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(16), DOI:10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020. Abstract
It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.
Burger, Friedrich A., Jasmin G John, and Thomas L Frölicher, September 2020: Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2. Biogeosciences, 17(18), DOI:10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020. Abstract
Ocean acidity extreme events are short-term periods of relatively high [H+] concentrations. The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the ocean is expected to lead to more frequent and intense ocean acidity extreme events, not only due to changes in the long-term mean but also due to changes in short-term variability. Here, we use daily mean output from a five-member ensemble simulation of a comprehensive Earth system model under low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios to quantify historical and future changes in ocean acidity extreme events. When defining extremes relative to a fixed preindustrial baseline, the projected increase in mean [H+] causes the entire surface ocean to reach a near-permanent acidity extreme state by 2030 under both the low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios. When defining extremes relative to a shifting baseline (i.e., neglecting the changes in mean [H+]), ocean acidity extremes are also projected to increase because of the simulated increase in [H+] variability; e.g., the number of days with extremely high surface [H+] conditions is projected to increase by a factor of 14 by the end of the 21st century under the high-CO2-emission scenario relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore, the duration of individual extreme events is projected to triple, and the maximal intensity and the volume extent in the upper 200 m are projected to quintuple. Similar changes are projected in the thermocline. Under the low-emission scenario, the increases in ocean acidity extreme-event characteristics are substantially reduced. At the surface, the increases in [H+] variability are mainly driven by increases in [H+] seasonality, whereas changes in thermocline [H+] variability are more influenced by interannual variability. Increases in [H+] variability arise predominantly from increases in the sensitivity of [H+] to variations in its drivers (i.e., carbon, alkalinity, and temperature) due to the increase in oceanic anthropogenic carbon. The projected increase in [H+] variability and extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms, especially for those that are adapted to a more stable environment.
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO2, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.
Simulation of coupled carbon‐climate requires representation of ocean carbon cycling, but the computational burden of simulating the dozens of prognostic tracers in state‐of‐the‐art biogeochemistry ecosystem models can be prohibitive. We describe a six‐tracer biogeochemistry module of steady‐state phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics in Biogeochemistry with Light, Iron, Nutrients and Gas (BLING version 2) with particular emphasis on enhancements relative to the previous version and evaluate its implementation in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) fourth‐generation climate model (CM4.0) with ¼° ocean. Major geographical and vertical patterns in chlorophyll, phosphorus, alkalinity, inorganic and organic carbon, and oxygen are well represented. Major biases in BLINGv2 include overly intensified production in high‐productivity regions at the expense of productivity in the oligotrophic oceans, overly zonal structure in tropical phosphorus, and intensified hypoxia in the eastern ocean basins as is typical in climate models. Overall, while BLINGv2 structural limitations prevent sophisticated application to plankton physiology, ecology, or biodiversity, its ability to represent major organic, inorganic, and solubility pumps makes it suitable for many coupled carbon‐climate and biogeochemistry studies including eddy interactions in the ocean interior. We further overview the biogeochemistry and circulation mechanisms that shape carbon uptake over the historical period. As an initial analysis of model historical and idealized response, we show that CM4.0 takes up slightly more anthropogenic carbon than previous models in part due to enhanced ventilation in the absence of an eddy parameterization. The CM4.0 biogeochemistry response to CO2 doubling highlights a mix of large declines and moderate increases consistent with previous models.
We describe the baseline model configuration and simulation characteristics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmosphere Model version 4.1 (AM4.1), which builds on developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.0 development effort, which focused on physical and aerosol interactions and which is used as the atmospheric component of CM4.0, AM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. Key features of this model include doubled horizontal resolution of the atmosphere (~200 to ~100 km) with revised dynamics and physics from GFDL's previous‐generation AM3 atmospheric chemistry‐climate model. AM4.1 features improved representation of atmospheric chemical composition, including aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, key land‐atmosphere interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere cycling of reactive nitrogen. AM4.1 provides vast improvements in fidelity over AM3, captures most of AM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on AM4.0 in the representation of aerosols over the Southern Ocean, India, and China—even with its interactive chemistry representation—and in its manifestation of sudden stratospheric warmings in the coldest months. Distributions of reactive nitrogen and sulfur species, carbon monoxide, and ozone are all substantially improved over AM3. Fidelity concerns include degradation of upper atmosphere equatorial winds and of aerosols in some regions.
Kwiatkowski, Lester, O Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew A Chamberlain, James R Christian, John P Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G John, A Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S Lovenduski, James C Orr, Julien Palmieri, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, and Charles A Stock, et al., July 2020: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper ocean nutrient decline from CMIP6 model projections. Biogeosciences, 17(13), DOI:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020. Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change leads to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reductions in near-surface nutrient concentrations, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5–8.5, the model mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration and euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration is +3.48 ± 0.78 °C, −0.44 ± 0.005, −13.27 ± 5.28 mmol m−3 and −1.07 ± 0.45 mmol m−3, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1–2.6, the corresponding changes are +1.42 ± 0.32 °C, −0.16 ± 0.002, −6.36 ± 2.92 mmol m−3 and −0.53 ± 0.23 mmol m−3. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The Earth system models in CMIP6 generally project greater surface warming, acidification, deoxygenation and euphotic nitrate reductions than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing, with no reduction in inter-model uncertainties. Under the high-emission CMIP5 scenario RCP8.5, the corresponding changes in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface oxygen and euphotic nitrate concentration are +3.04 ± 0.62 °C, −0.38 ± 0.005, −9.51 ± 2.13 mmol m−3 and −0.66 ± 0.49 mmol m−3, respectively. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues. The increased projected warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming results in greater increases in upper ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in euphotic nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation.
The imprint of anthropogenic activities on the marine nitrogen (N) cycle remains challenging to represent in global models, in part because of uncertainties regarding the source of marine N to the atmosphere. While N inputs of terrestrial origin present a truly external perturbation, a significant fraction of N deposition over the ocean arises from oceanic ammonia (NH3) outgassing that is subsequently deposited in other ocean regions. Here, we describe advances in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Earth System Model 4 (ESM4.1) aimed at improving the representation of the exchange of N between atmosphere and ocean and its response to changes in ocean acidity and N deposition. We find that the simulated present‐day NH3 outgassing (3.1 TgN yr−1) is 7% lower than under preindustrial conditions, which reflects the compensating effects of increasing CO2 (−16%) and N enrichment of ocean waters (+9%). This change is spatially heterogeneous, with decreases in the open ocean (−13%) and increases in coastal regions (+15%) dominated by coastal N enrichment. The ocean outgassing of ammonia is shown to increase the transport of N from N‐rich to N‐poor ocean regions, where carbon export at 100 m increases by 0.5%. The implications of the strong response of NH3 ocean outgassing to CO2 for the budget of NH3 in the remote marine atmosphere and its imprint in ice cores are discussed.
Séférian, Roland, Sarah Berthet, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Laurent Bopp, Alessandro Tagliabue, Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Aumont, James R Christian, John P Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G John, Hongmei Li, Matthew C Long, Jessica Y Luo, Hideyuki Nakano, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, and Charles A Stock, et al., August 2020: Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6. Current Climate Change Reports, 6, DOI:10.1007/s40641-020-00160-095-119. Abstract
Purpose of Review:
The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs).
Recent Findings:
The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models.
Summary:
Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
This contribution describes the ocean biogeochemical component of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM4.1), assesses GFDL‐ESM4.1's capacity to capture observed ocean biogeochemical patterns, and documents its response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Notable differences relative to the previous generation of GFDL ESM's include enhanced resolution of plankton food web dynamics, refined particle remineralization, and a larger number of exchanges of nutrients across Earth system components. During model spin‐up, the carbon drift rapidly fell below the 10 Pg C per century equilibration criterion established by the Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Simulations robustly captured large‐scale observed nutrient distributions, plankton dynamics, and characteristics of the biological pump. The model overexpressed phosphate limitation and open ocean hypoxia in some areas but still yielded realistic surface and deep carbon system properties, including cumulative carbon uptake since preindustrial times and over the last decades that is consistent with observation‐based estimates. The model's response to the direct and radiative effects of a 200% atmospheric CO2 increase from preindustrial conditions (i.e., years 101–120 of a 1% CO2 yr−1 simulation) included (a) a weakened, shoaling organic carbon pump leading to a 38% reduction in the sinking flux at 2,000 m; (b) a two‐thirds reduction in the calcium carbonate pump that nonetheless generated only weak calcite compensation on century time‐scales; and, in contrast to previous GFDL ESMs, (c) a moderate reduction in global net primary production that was amplified at higher trophic levels. We conclude with a discussion of model limitations and priority developments.
Turnock, Steven T., Robert J Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E Bauer, Louisa K Emmons, Peter Good, Larry W Horowitz, Jasmin G John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, and Vaishali Naik, et al., November 2020: Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(23), DOI:10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020. Abstract
Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.
We document the configuration and emergent simulation features from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) OM4.0 ocean/sea‐ice model. OM4 serves as the ocean/sea‐ice component for the GFDL climate and Earth system models. It is also used for climate science research and is contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6/OMIP). The ocean component of OM4 uses version 6 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) and the sea‐ice component uses version 2 of the Sea Ice Simulator (SIS2), which have identical horizontal grid layouts (Arakawa C‐grid). We follow the Coordinated Ocean‐sea ice Reference Experiments (CORE) protocol to assess simulation quality across a broad suite of climate relevant features. We present results from two versions differing by horizontal grid spacing and physical parameterizations: OM4p5 has nominal 0.5° spacing and includes mesoscale eddy parameterizations and OM4p25 has nominal 0.25° spacing with no mesoscale eddy parameterization.
MOM6 makes use of a vertical Lagrangian‐remap algorithm that enables general vertical coordinates. We show that use of a hybrid depth‐isopycnal coordinate reduces the mid‐depth ocean warming drift commonly found in pure z* vertical coordinate ocean models. To test the need for the mesoscale eddy parameterization used in OM4p5, we examine the results from a simulation that removes the eddy parameterization. The water mass structure and model drift are physically degraded relative to OM4p5, thus supporting the key role for a mesoscale closure at this resolution.
We describe GFDL's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the pre‐industrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasi‐periodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
Seasonal to interannual predictions of ecosystem dynamics have the potential to improve the management of living marine resources. Prediction of oceanic net primary production (NPP), the foundation of marine food webs and the biological carbon pump, is particularly promising, with recent analysis suggesting that ecosystem feedback processes may lead to higher predictability of NPP at interannual scales than for physical variables like sea surface temperature (SST). Here, we assessed the potential predictability of oceanic NPP and SST across seasonal to interannual lead times using reduced dimension, linear dynamical spatio-temporal models (rDSTM). This approach combines empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to simplify the analysis of spatio-temporal data. The rDSTMs were fitted to monthly NPP and SST anomalies derived from 20 years of remote sensing data (1997-2017), considering two alternative algorithms commonly used to estimate NPP (VGPM and Eppley-VGPM) and optimally analyzed SST fields (AVHRR OISST). The local decay of anomalies provided high predictability up to three months, and subsequent interactions with remote forcing significantly extended predictability beyond the initial anomaly decay. Indeed, interactions among spatial modes associated with the propagation of major climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extended the predictability horizon above one year in some regions. Patterns of enhanced NPP predictability matched the location of oligotrophic gyres and transition regions between ocean biomes, where fluctuations in biome boundaries generate large biogeochemical perturbations that leave lasting imprints on NPP. In these areas, the predictability horizon for NPP was longer than for SST, although SST was more predictable over large areas of the equatorial and northeast Pacific. Our results support the potential for extending seasonal to interannual physical climate predictions to predict ocean productivity.
Ocean surface winds determine energy, material and momentum fluxes through the air-sea interface. Accounting for wind variability in time and space is thus essential to reliably analyze and simulate ocean circulation and the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we present an assessment of surface winds from three widely used atmospheric reanalysis products (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim and JRA-55) and their corresponding ocean forcing data sets (CORE v2.1, DFS v5.2 and JRA55-do), which include corrections for use in ocean simulations. We compared wind patterns most relevant to ocean circulation (surface wind stress, its curl and estimates of induced vertical upwelling velocity) across global and regional scales, with added emphasis on the main Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems (EBUEs). All products provided consistent large-scale patterns in surface winds and wind stress, although agreement was reduced for indices involving the calculation of spatial derivatives, like wind stress curl and Ekman pumping. Fidelity with respect to a reference reanalysis based on blended satellite and buoy observations (CCMP v2.0) improved in more recent, higher resolution products like JRA-55 and ERA-Interim. Adjustments applied when deriving ocean forcing data sets from atmospheric reanalysis robustly improved wind speed and wind stress vectors, but degraded wind stress curl (and implied Ekman upwelling) in two of the three ocean forcing products considered (DFS v5.2 and CORE v2.1).
At regional scales, we found significant inconsistencies in equatorial and polar regions, as well as in coastal areas. In EBUEs, upwelling favorable winds were weaker in atmospheric reanalysis products and ocean forcing data sets than estimates based on CCMP v2.0 and QuikSCAT. All reanalysis products featured lower amplitude seasonal cycles and contrasting patterns of low frequency variability within each EBUE, including the presence of sudden changes in mean upwelling only for some products.
Taken together, our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainties in wind forcing into ocean simulation experiments and retrospective analysis, and of correcting reanalysis products for ocean forcing data sets. Despite the continued improvement in the quality of wind data sets, prevailing limitations in reanalysis models demonstrate the need to confirm global products against regional measurements whenever possible and improve correction strategies across multiple ocean-relevant wind properties.
Icebergs and glacial meltwater have been observed to significantly affect chlorophyll concentrations, primary production and particle export locally, yet the quantitative influence of glacial iron on the carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean remains unknown. We analyse the impact of icebergs and glacial meltwater on the Southern Ocean carbon cycle in a global Earth System Model. We consider several simulations spanning low and high bounds of current estimates of glacial iron concentration. We find that a high glacial iron input produces the best agreement with observed iron and chlorophyll distributions. These high glacial iron input results indicate that about 30% of the Southern Ocean particle export production, i.e., the flux of particulate organic matter through the 100 m depth level, is driven by glacial iron sources. This export production is associated with an uptake of 0.14 Pg carbon per year, which reduces carbon outgassing in the Southern Ocean by 30%.
Palter, J B., Thomas L Frölicher, David J Paynter, and Jasmin G John, June 2018: Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), DOI:10.5194/esd-9-817-2018. Abstract
The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal – or net negative emissions – might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.
Reliable estimates of historical and current biogeochemistry are essential for understanding past ecosystem variability and predicting future changes. Efforts to translate improved physical ocean state estimates into improved biogeochemical estimates, however, are hindered by high biogeochemical sensitivity to transient momentum imbalances that arise during physical data assimilation. Most notably, the breakdown of geostrophic constraints on data assimilation in equatorial regions can lead to spurious upwelling, resulting in excessive equatorial productivity and biogeochemical fluxes. This hampers efforts to understand and predict the biogeochemical consequences of El Niño and La Niña. We develop a strategy to robustly integrate an ocean biogeochemical model with an ensemble coupled-climate data assimilation system used for seasonal to decadal global climate prediction. Addressing spurious vertical velocities requires two steps. First, we find that tightening constraints on atmospheric data assimilation maintains a better equatorial wind stress and pressure gradient balance. This reduces spurious vertical velocities, but those remaining still produce substantial biogeochemical biases. The remainder is addressed by imposing stricter fidelity to model dynamics over data constraints near the equator. We determine an optimal choice of model-data weights that removed spurious biogeochemical signals while benefitting from off-equatorial constraints that still substantially improve equatorial physical ocean simulations. Compared to the unconstrained control run, the optimally constrained model reduces equatorial biogeochemical biases and markedly improves the equatorial subsurface nitrate concentrations and hypoxic area. The pragmatic approach described herein offers a means of advancing earth system prediction in parallel with continued data assimilation advances aimed at fully considering equatorial data constraints.
Turi, G, M J Alexander, Nicole S Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, J Scott, Charles A Stock, John P Dunne, Jasmin G John, and Michael G Jacox, February 2018: Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high resolution global climate model. Ocean Science, 14(1), DOI:10.5194/os-14-69-2018. Abstract
We use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the physics and biogeochemistry of the California Current System (CalCS). We focus on the effect of ENSO on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the coastal waters of the CalCS. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ~100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several 100 km offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ~100 km-wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ~100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.
Henson, Stephanie A., C Beaulieu, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G John, Matthew C Long, Roland Séférian, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jorge L Sarmiento, March 2017: Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nature Communications, 8, 14682, DOI:10.1038/ncomms14682. Abstract
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
Accurate representation of the remineralization of sinking organic matter is crucial for reliable projections of the marine carbon cycle. Both water temperature and oxygen concentration are thought to influence remineralization rates, but limited data constraints have caused disagreement concerning the degree of these influences. We analyse a compilation of POC flux measurements from 19 globally distributed sites. Our results indicate that the attenuation of the flux of particulate organic matter depends on temperature with a Q10 between 1.5 and 2.01, and on oxygen described by a half saturation constant between 4 and 12 μmol/L. We assess the impact of the temperature and oxygen dependence in the biogeochemistry model COBALT, coupled to GFDL's Earth System Model ESM2M. The new remineralization parameterization results in shallower remineralization in the low latitudes but deeper remineralization in the high latitudes, redistributing POC flux towards the poles. It also decreases the volume of the oxygen minimum zones, partly addressing a long-standing bias in global climate models. Extrapolating temperature-dependent remineralization rates to the surface (i.e., beyond the depth range of POC flux data) resulted in rapid recycling and excessive surface nutrients. Surface nutrients could be ameliorated by reducing near surface rates in a manner consistent with bacterial colonization, suggesting the need for improved remineralization constraints within the euphotic zone. The temperature and oxygen dependence cause an additional 10% decrease in global POC flux at 500m depth, but no significant change in global POC flux at 2000m under the RCP8.5 future projection.
Orr, James C., R G Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, J L Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C Doney, John P Dunne, J-C Dutay, H D Graven, Stephen M Griffies, and Jasmin G John, et al., June 2017: Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, 10(6), DOI:10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017. Abstract
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth System Models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) versus when integrated within fully coupled Earth System Models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled online to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6 and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin up, preferably for 2000 years or more and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facililtate their implementation.
Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.
Jones, C, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John P Dunne, H D Graven, F Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jasmin G John, et al., August 2016: C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(8), DOI:10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016. Abstract
Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. So-called Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models to identify common signals and understand model similarities and differences without being hindered by ad-hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. The activity known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has thus grown significantly in scope and as it enters its 6th phase, CMIP6, the design and documentation of individual simulations has been devolved to individual climate science communities.
The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilise climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has formed this experimental design the simulations also fit into the wider CMIP activity and conform to some common standards such as documentation and diagnostic requests and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the DECK.
C4MIP has 3 key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation; (2) idealised coupled and partially-coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components; (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth System will respond over the 21st century and beyond to anthropogenic activity.
This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set-up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions and input data required, and also the output diagnostics requested. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.
Laufkötter, Charlotte, M Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C Doney, John P Dunne, Judith Hauck, and Jasmin G John, et al., July 2016: Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem. Biogeosciences, 13(13), DOI:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016. Abstract
Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralization of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5, and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralization is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralization or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralization. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times lower/higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.
Lee, Y J., P A Matrai, Marjorie A M Friedrichs, Vincent S Saba, Olivier Aumont, M Babin, Erik T Buitenhuis, M Chevallier, L de Mora, M Dessert, John P Dunne, I H Ellingsen, Daniel Feldman, R Frouin, Marion Gehlen, T Gorgues, Tatiana Ilyina, M Jin, Jasmin G John, J Lawrence, Manfredi Manizza, C Menkes, C Perruche, V Le Fouest, E E Popova, Anastasia Romanou, A Samuelsen, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, and Charles A Stock, et al., December 2016: Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(12), DOI:10.1002/2016JC011993. Abstract
The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959–2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.
The world’s major Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC)
are critically important areas for global fisheries. Computational
limitations have divided past EBC modeling
into two types: high-resolution regional approaches
that resolve the strong mesoscale structures involved;
and coarse global approaches that represent the largescale
context for EBCs but crudely resolve only the
largest scales of their local manifestation. These latter
global studies have illustrated the complex mechanisms
involved in the climate change and acidification response
in these regions, with the EBC response dominated not
by local adjustments but large-scale reorganization of
ocean circulation through remote forcing of water mass
supply pathways. While qualitatively illustrating the limitations
of regional high-resolution studies in long-term
projections, these studies lack the ability to robustly
quantify change because of the inability of these models
to represent the baseline mesoscale structures of EBCs.
In the present work, we compare current generation
coarse resolution (1˚) and a prototype next generation
high-resolution (1/10˚) Earth System Models (ESMs)
from NOAA ’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
in representing the four major EBCs. We review the
long-known temperature biases that the coarse models
suffer in being unable to represent the timing and intensity
of upwelling-favorable winds. In promising contrast,
we show that the high-resolution prototype is capable
of representing not only the overall mesoscale structure
in physical and biogeochemical fields, but also the
appropriate offshore extent of temperature anomalies
and other EBC characteristics. In terms of representation
of large-scale circulation, results were mixed, with the
high-resolution prototype addressing some, but not all,
of the biases in the coarse-resolution ESM. The ability
to simulate EBCs in the global context at high resolution
in global ESMs represents a fundamental milestone
towards both seasonal to interannual ecological forecasting
and long-term projection of climate, ecosystem, and
acidification baselines and sensitivity.
http://www.calcofi.org/publications/calcofireports/v56/Vol56-Dunne.web.72-75.pdf
Hauck, Judith, C Volker, D A Wolf-Gladrow, Charlotte Laufkötter, M Vogt, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Erik T Buitenhuis, Scott C Doney, John P Dunne, Nicolas Gruber, T Hashioka, Jasmin G John, C Le Quéré, Ivan D Lima, Hideyuki Nakano, Roland Séférian, and I J Totterdell, September 2015: On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29(9), DOI:10.1002/2015GB005140. Abstract
We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44 ∘ S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58∘ S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58∘ S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44∘ S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44∘ S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30∘ S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30∘S.
Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) forcings are applied out to 2100, and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate earth system model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.
Laufkötter, Charlotte, M Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, M Aita-Noguchi, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Erik T Buitenhuis, Scott C Doney, John P Dunne, T Hashioka, Judith Hauck, T Hirata, and Jasmin G John, et al., December 2015: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. Biogeosciences, 12(23), DOI:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015. Abstract
Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012–2031 average and the 2081–2100 average is up to 3 mol C m-2 yr-1. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.
The Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) marine ecosystem model robustly captures large-scale observed patterns in the flow of carbon through the planktonic food web when embedded within a global ocean-ice simulation. The simulation offers holistic, quantitative, and self-consistent estimates of carbon and energy flows across ocean biomes. Results emphasize the importance of small phytoplankton to global productivity. This leads to widespread carnivorous feeding by mesozooplankton and muted cross-biome differences in annual mean mesozooplankton trophic level. Results also support highly distributed respiration across the planktonic food web. In oceanic upwelling regions, shortened food webs, elevated growth efficiencies, and tight consumer-phytoplankton coupling supports 47% of pelagic mesozooplankton production despite these areas accounting for only 21% of ocean area and 33% of net primary production (NPP). In seasonally stratified regions (40% of ocean area and 36% of NPP), weakened phytoplankton-consumer coupling reduces mesozooplankton production to 39% and enhances export such that it accounts for 55% of the global total. In oligotrophic systems (39% of ocean area and 27% of NPP), the dominance of small phytoplankton and low consumer growth efficiencies support only 15% of mesozooplankton production and 14% of export globally. Bacterial production, in contrast, is maintained in constant proportion to primary production across ecosystems. Further diagnosis of simulations elucidates the mechanisms underlying these cross biome contrasts and regularities. Results herein represent a baseline for further exploration of global-scale planktonic food web dynamics within an increasingly mechanistic dynamic global physical-biological framework.
Pronounced projected 21st century trends in regional oceanic net primary production (NPP) raise the prospect of significant redistributions of marine resources. Recent results further suggest that NPP changes may be amplified at higher trophic levels. Here, we elucidate the role of planktonic food web dynamics in driving projected changes in mesozooplankton production (MESOZP) found to be, on average, twice as large as projected changes in NPP by the latter half of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. Globally, MESOZP was projected to decline by 7.9% but regional MESOZP changes sometimes exceeded 50%. Changes in three planktonic food web properties – zooplankton growth efficiency (ZGE), the trophic level of mesozooplankton (MESOTL), and the fraction of NPP consumed by zooplankton (zooplankton-phytoplankton coupling, ZPC), were demonstrated to be responsible for the projected amplification. Zooplankton growth efficiencies (ZGE) changed with NPP, amplifying both NPP increases and decreases. Negative amplification (i.e., exacerbation) of projected subtropical NPP declines via this mechanism was particularly strong since consumers in the subtropics already have limited surplus energy above basal metabolic costs. Increased mesozooplankton trophic level (MESOTL) resulted from projected declines in large phytoplankton production, the primary target of herbivorous mesozooplankton. This further amplified negative subtropical NPP declines but was secondary to ZGE and, at higher latitudes, was often offset by increased ZPC. Marked ZPC increases were projected for high latitude regions experiencing shoaling of deep winter mixing or decreased winter sea ice – both tending to increase winter zooplankton biomass and enhance grazer control of spring blooms. Increased ZPC amplified projected NPP increases associated with declining sea ice in the Artic and damped projected NPP declines associated with decreased mixing in the Northwest Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Improved understanding of the complex interactions governing these food web properties is essential to further refine estimates of climate-driven productivity changes across trophic levels.
We describe carbon system formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate good climate fidelity as described in Part I while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ almost exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. On land, both ESMs include a revised land model to simulate competitive vegetation distributions and functioning, including carbon cycling among vegetation, soil and atmosphere. In the ocean, both models include new biogeochemical algorithms including phytoplankton functional group dynamics with flexible stoichiometry. Preindustrial simulations are spun up to give stable, realistic carbon cycle means and variability. Significant differences in simulation characteristics of these two models are described. Due to differences in oceanic ventilation rates (Part I) ESM2M has a stronger biological carbon pump but weaker northward implied atmospheric CO2 transport than ESM2G. The major advantages of ESM2G over ESM2M are: improved representation of surface chlorophyll in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and thermocline nutrients and oxygen in the North Pacific. Improved tree mortality parameters in ESM2G produced more realistic carbon accumulation in vegetation pools. The major advantages of ESM2M over ESM2G are reduced nutrient and oxygen biases in the Southern and Tropical Oceans.
A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a
global-scale increase in absolute humidity
1,2
. Under continued
warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly
severe limitations on human activity in tropical and midlatitudes during peak months of heat stress
3
. One heat-stress
metric with broad occupational health applications
4–6
is wetbulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis
7
and Earth
System Model (ESM2M) projections
8–10
with industrial
4
and
military
5
guidelines for an acclimated individual’s occupational
capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)—here defined as a global
population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few
decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in
peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered
(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects
labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak
months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing
extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats
associated with these projections include climate sensitivity,
climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population
distributions, and technological and societal change.
We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.
Gnanadesikan, Anand, John P Dunne, and Jasmin G John, March 2012: Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model. Biogeosciences, 9(3), DOI:10.5194/bg-9-1159-2012. Abstract
Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility
and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which
would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of
hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System
model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical
cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s
Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true
if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However,
the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does
not increase under global warming, as these waters actually
become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved
oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in
ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least
oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved
oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in
remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This
lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation
along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under
global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection
in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of
suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well
as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of
dissolved oxygen in such waters.
With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of tropospheric methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860�2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2006�2100), conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in CH4 lifetime due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the methane lifetime declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. The aerosol indirect effect plays a significant role in the CM3 climate and thus in the future evolution of the methane lifetime, due to the rapid projected decline of aerosols under all four RCPs. In all scenarios, the methane lifetime decreases (by 5�13%) except for the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5), where it increases by 4% due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. In the RCP4.5 scenario changes in short-lived climate forcing agents reinforce climate warming and enhance OH, leading to a more-than-doubling of the decrease in methane lifetime from 2006 to 2100 relative to a simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases are allowed to change along the RCP4.5 scenario (13% vs. 5%) Future work should include process-based studies to better understand and elucidate the individual mechanisms controlling methane lifetime.
Gnanadesikan, Anand, John P Dunne, and Jasmin G John, July 2011: What ocean biogeochemical models can tell us about bottom-up control of ecosystem variability. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsr068. Abstract
Processes included in earth system models amplify the impact of climate variability on phytoplankton biomass and, therefore, on
upper trophic levels. Models predict much larger relative interannual variability in large phytoplankton biomass compared with
total phytoplankton biomass, supporting the goal of better constraining size-structured primary production and biomass from
remote sensing. The largest modelled variability in annually averaged large phytoplankton biomass is associated with changes in
the areal extent of relatively productive regions. Near the equator, changes in the areal extent of the high-productivity zone are
driven by large-scale shifts in nutrient fields, as well as changes in currents. Along the poleward edge of the Subtropical Gyres,
changes in physical mixing dominate. Finally, models indicate that high-latitude interannual variability in large phytoplankton
biomass is highest during spring. Mechanisms for producing such variability differ across biomes with internal ocean processes,
such as convection complicating efforts to link ecosystem variability to climate modes defined using sea surface temperature
alone. In salinity-stratified subpolar regions, changes in bloom timing driven by salinity can produce correlations between low
surface temperatures and high productivity, supporting the potential importance of using coupled atmosphere–ocean reanalyses,
rather than simple forced ocean reanalyses, for attributing past ecosystem shifts.
Henson, Stephanie A., Jorge L Sarmiento, John P Dunne, Laurent Bopp, Ivan D Lima, Scott C Doney, Jasmin G John, and C Beaulieu, February 2010: Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity. Biogeosciences, 7(2), DOI:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010. Abstract
Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of similar to 40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (similar to 20-30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until similar to 2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.
Baker, D F., R M Law, K R Gurney, P Rayner, P Peylin, A S Denning, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler, Yu-Han Chen, Philippe Ciais, I Y Fung, M Heimann, Jasmin G John, T Maki, Shamil Maksyutov, K Masarie, Michael J Prather, B Pak, S Taguchi, and Z Zhu, 2006: TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB1002, DOI:10.1029/2004GB002439. Abstract
Monthly CO2 fluxes are estimated across 1988–2003 for 22 emission regions using data from 78 CO2 measurement sites. The same inversion (method, priors, data) is performed with 13 different atmospheric transport models, and the spread in the results is taken as a measure of transport model error. Interannual variability (IAV) in the winds is not modeled, so any IAV in the measurements is attributed to IAV in the fluxes. When both this transport error and the random estimation errors are considered, the flux IAV obtained is statistically significant at P ≤ 0.05 when the fluxes are grouped into land and ocean components for three broad latitude bands, but is much less so when grouped into continents and basins. The transport errors have the largest impact in the extratropical northern latitudes. A third of the 22 emission regions have significant IAV, including the Tropical East Pacific (with physically plausible uptake/release across the 1997–2000 El Niño/La Niña) and Tropical Asia (with strong release in 1997/1998 coinciding with large-scale fires there). Most of the global IAV is attributed robustly to the tropical/southern land biosphere, including both the large release during the 1997/1998 El Niño and the post-Pinatubo uptake
Doney, Scott C., Keith Lindsay, I Y Fung, and Jasmin G John, July 2006: Natural Variability in a Stable, 1000-Yr Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Simulation. Journal of Climate, 19(13), DOI:10.1175/JCLI3783.1. Abstract
A new 3D global coupled carbon–climate model is presented in the framework of the Community Climate System Model (CSM-1.4). The biogeochemical module includes explicit land water–carbon coupling, dynamic carbon allocation to leaf, root, and wood, prognostic leaf phenology, multiple soil and detrital carbon pools, oceanic iron limitation, a full ocean iron cycle, and 3D atmospheric CO2 transport. A sequential spinup strategy is utilized to minimize the coupling shock and drifts in land and ocean carbon inventories. A stable, 1000-yr control simulation [global annual mean surface temperature ±0.10 K and atmospheric CO2 ± 1.2 ppm (1σ)] is presented with no flux adjustment in either physics or biogeochemistry. The control simulation compares reasonably well against observations for key annual mean and seasonal carbon cycle metrics; regional biases in coupled model physics, however, propagate clearly into biogeochemical error patterns. Simulated interannual-to-centennial variability in atmospheric CO2 is dominated by terrestrial carbon flux variability, ±0.69 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global net annual mean), which in turn reflects primarily regional changes in net primary production modulated by moisture stress. Power spectra of global CO2 fluxes are white on time scales beyond a few years, and thus most of the variance is concentrated at high frequencies (time scale <4 yr). Model variability in air–sea CO2 fluxes, ±0.10 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global annual mean), is generated by variability in sea surface temperature, wind speed, export production, and mixing/upwelling. At low frequencies (time scale >20 yr), global net ocean CO2 flux is strongly anticorrelated (0.7–0.95) with the net CO2 flux from land; the ocean tends to damp (20%–25%) slow variations in atmospheric CO2 generated by the terrestrial biosphere. The intrinsic, unforced natural variability in land and ocean carbon storage is the “noise” that complicates the detection and mechanistic attribution of contemporary anthropogenic carbon sinks.
Friedlingstein, Pierre, and Jasmin G John, et al., July 2006: Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19(14), DOI:10.1175/JCLI3800.1. Abstract
Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between
climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic
emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order
to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate
feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the
models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic
carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted
for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for
the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels
led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C.
All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate.
However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed
most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located
the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to
changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus
emerged among the models.
Hoffman, F, I Y Fung, J Randerson, P Thornton, J Foley, C Covey, and Jasmin G John, et al., June 2006: Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM). Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 46, DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/46/1/051. Abstract
Described here is the formulation of the CASA' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA' is one of three models – in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) – that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
Patra, Prabir K., Jasmin G John, Jorge L Sarmiento, and Songmiao Fan, et al., March 2006: Sensitivity of inverse estimation of annual mean CO2 sources and sinks to ocean-only sites versus all-sites observational networks. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L05814, DOI:10.1029/2005GL025403. Abstract
Inverse estimation of carbon dioxide (CO2) sources and sinks uses atmospheric CO2 observations, mostly made near the Earth's surface. However, transport models used in such studies lack perfect representation of atmospheric dynamics and thus often fail to produce unbiased forward simulations. The error is generally larger for observations over the land than those over the remote/marine locations. The range of this error is estimated by using multiple transport models (16 are used here). We have estimated the remaining differences in CO2 fluxes due to the use of ocean-only versus all-sites (i.e., over ocean and land) observations of CO2 in a time-independent inverse modeling framework. The fluxes estimated using the ocean-only networks are more robust compared to those obtained using all-sites networks. This makes the global, hemispheric, and regional flux determination less dependent on the selection of transport model and observation network.
Fung, I Y., Scott C Doney, Keith Lindsay, and Jasmin G John, August 2005: Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(32), DOI:10.1073/pnas.0504949102. Abstract
Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land
and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence
provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with
the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System
Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink
strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon
storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate
warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there
is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so
that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of
anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally,
the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this
model because of its low transient climate response and the
near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic
and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the
context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the
tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is
uncertain.
Bonfils, Céline, I Y Fung, Scott C Doney, and Jasmin G John, May 2004: On the detection of summertime terrestrial photosynthetic variability from its atmospheric signature. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L09207, DOI:10.1029/2004GL019453. Abstract
We identify the climatic signatures of the summertime terrestrial photosynthesis variability using a long simulation of pre-industrial climate performed with the NCAR coupled global climate-carbon model. Since plant physiology controls simultaneously CO2 uptake and surface fluxes of water, changes in photosynthesis are accompanied by changes in numerous climate variables: daily maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, Bowen ratio, canopy temperature and tropospheric lapse rate. Results show that these climate variables may be used as powerful proxies for photosynthesis activity for subtropical vegetation and for tropical vegetation when photosynthetic variability may be limited by water availability.
Gurney, K R., and Jasmin G John, et al., January 2004: Transcom 3 inversion intercomparison: Model mean results for the estimation of seasonal carbon sources and sinks. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, GB1010, DOI:10.1029/2003GB002111. Abstract
The TransCom 3 experiment was begun to explore the estimation of carbon sources and sinks via the inversion of simulated tracer transport. We build upon previous TransCom work by presenting the seasonal inverse results which provide estimates of carbon flux for 11 land and 11 ocean regions using 12 atmospheric transport models. The monthly fluxes represent the mean seasonal cycle for the 1992 to 1996 time period. The spread among the model results is larger than the average of their estimated flux uncertainty in the northern extratropics and vice versa in the tropical regions. In the northern land regions, the model spread is largest during the growing season. Compared to a seasonally balanced biosphere prior flux generated by the CASA model, we find significant changes to the carbon exchange in the European region with greater growing season net uptake which persists into the fall months. Both Boreal North America and Boreal Asia show lessened net uptake at the onset of the growing season with Boreal Asia also exhibiting greater peak growing season net uptake. Temperate Asia shows a dramatic springward shift in the peak timing of growing season net uptake relative to the neutral CASA flux while Temperate North America exhibits a broad flattening of the seasonal cycle. In most of the ocean regions, the inverse fluxes exhibit much greater seasonality than that implied by the ΔpCO2 derived fluxes though this may be due, in part, to misallocation of adjacent land flux. In the Southern Ocean, the austral spring and fall exhibits much less carbon uptake than implied by ΔpCO2 derived fluxes. Sensitivity testing indicates that the inverse estimates are not overly influenced by the prior flux choices. Considerable agreement exists between the model mean, annual mean results of this study and that of the previously published TransCom annual mean inversion. The differences that do exist are in poorly constrained regions and tend to exhibit compensatory fluxes in order to match the global mass constraint. The differences between the estimated fluxes and the prior model over the northern land regions could be due to the prior model respiration response to temperature. Significant phase differences, such as that in the Temperate Asia region, may be due to the limited observations for that region. Finally, differences in the boreal land regions between the prior model and the estimated fluxes may be a reflection of the timing of spring thaw and an imbalance in respiration versus photosynthesis.
Gurney, K R., A Lauer, A S Denning, P Rayner, D F Baker, Philippe Bousquet, Lori Bruhwiler, Yu-Han Chen, Philippe Ciais, Songmiao Fan, I Y Fung, M Gloor, M Heimann, K Higuchi, Jasmin G John, Eva Kowalczyk, T Maki, Shamil Maksyutov, P Peylin, Michael J Prather, B Pak, Jorge L Sarmiento, S Taguchi, T Takahashi, and C-W Yuen, 2003: TransCom 3 CO2 inversion intercomparison: 1. Annual mean control results and sensitivity to transport and prior flux information. Tellus B, 55B(2), 555-579. Abstract PDF
Spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentration contain information about surface sources and sinks, which can be quantitatively interpreted through tracer transport inversion. Previous CO2 inversion calculations obtained differing results due to different data, methods and transport models used. To isolate the sources of uncertainty, we have conducted a set of annual mean inversion experiments in which 17 different transport models or model variants were used to calculate regional carbon sources and sinks from the same data with a standardized method. Simulated transport is a significant source of uncertainty in these calculations, particularly in the response to prescribed "background" fluxes due to fossil fuel combustion, a balanced terrestrial biosphere, and air-sea gas exchange. Individual model-estimated fluxes are often a direct reflection of their response to these background fluxes. Models that generate strong surface maxima near background exchange locations tend to require larger uptake near those locations. Models with weak surface maxima tend to have less uptake in those same regions but may infer small sources downwind. In some cases, individual model flux estimates cannot be analyzed through simple relationships to background flux responses but are likely due to local transport differences or particular responses at individual CO2 observing locations. The response to the background biosphere exchange generates the greatest variation in the estimated fluxes, particularly over land in the Northern Hemisphere. More observational data in the tropical regions may help in both lowering the uncertain tropical land flux uncertainties and constraining the northern land estimates because of compensation between these two broad regions in the inversion. More optimistically, examination of the model-mean retrieved fluxes indicates a general insensitivity to the prior fluxes and the prior flux uncertainties. Less uptake in the Southern Ocean than implied by oceanographic observations, and an evenly distributed northern land sink, remain in spite of changes in this aspect of the inversion setup.
TransCom 3 is an intercomparison project for CO2 source inversions. Annual mean CO2 concentration data are used to estimate CO2sources using 16 different atmospheric transport models. Here we test the sensitivity of the inversion to the concentration data. We examine data network choice, time period of data, baseline data selection and the choice of data uncertainty used. We find that in most cases regional source estimates lie within the source uncertainty range of the control inversion. This indicates that the estimated sources are relatively insensitive to the changes in data that were tested. In the data network tests, only the Australian region source estimates varied over a much larger range than that given by the control case uncertainty estimate. For the other regions, the sensitivity to data network was within or close to the uncertainty range. Most of the sensitivity was found to be associated with a small number of sites (e.g. Darwin, Easter Island). These sites are often identified by the inability of the inversion to fit the data at these locations. The model-mean inversion values are mostly insensitive to the time period of data used, with the exception of temperate North America and the tropical Indian ocean. Data selection has a small impact on source estimates for the mean across models, but individual model sensitivity can be large. The magnitude of data uncertainties controls the relative magnitude of the estimated source uncertainty and the spread in model source estimates. Smaller data uncertainties lead to larger differences in source estimates between models. Overall, the data sensitivity tests performed here support the robustness of the control inversion source estimates presented in Gurney et al. (2003. Tellus55B, this issue). The test results also provide guidance in setting up and interpreting other inversions.
Maksyutov, Shamil, and Jasmin G John, et al., 2003: Effect of recent observations on Asian COEffect of recent observations on Asian CO2 flux estimates by transport model inversions flux estimates by transport model inversions. Tellus B, 55(2), DOI:10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.00052.x. Abstract
We use an inverse model to evaluate the effects of the recent CO2 observations over Asia on estimates
of regional CO2 sources and sinks. Global CO2 flux distribution is evaluated using several atmospheric
transport models, atmospheric CO2 observations and a “time-independent” inversion procedure adopted
in the basic synthesis inversion by the Transcom-3 inverse model intercomparison project. In our
analysis we include airborne and tower observations in Siberia, continuous monitoring and airborne
observations over Japan, and airborne monitoring on regular flights on Tokyo–Sydney route. The
inclusion of the new data reduces the uncertainty of the estimated regional CO2 fluxes for Boreal Asia
(Siberia), Temperate Asia and South-East Asia. The largest effect is observed for the emission/sink
estimate for the Boreal Asia region, where introducing the observations in Siberia reduces the source
uncertainty by almost half. It also produces an uncertainty reduction for Boreal North America. Addition
of the Siberian airborne observations leads to projecting extra sinks in Boreal Asia of 0.2 Pg C yr−1,
and a smaller change for Europe. The Tokyo–Sydney observations reduce and constrain the Southeast
Asian source.
Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models 1-9. Here we report estimates of surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive in transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network with the tropics.
Fung, I Y., S K Meyn, I Tegen, Scott C Doney, Jasmin G John, and J Bishop, March 2000: Iron supply and demand in the upper ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14(1), DOI:10.1029/1999GB900059.
Gajewski, K R., R Vance, M Sawada, I Y Fung, L D Gignac, L Halsey, and Jasmin G John, May 2000: The climate of North America and adjacent ocean waters ca 6 ka. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 37(5), DOI:10.1139/e99-065. Abstract
The climate of North America and the adjacent ocean at 6000 BP was estimated using five independent approaches. Using pollen data, the terrestrial climate was estimated by the movement of ecozone boundaries and by the method of modern analogues. Both analyses indicate warmer temperatures in the western Great Lakes area and the northern Great Plains. A model of Sphagnum-dominated peatland initiation, when forced by Canadian Climate Model 6 ka output projected a cooler and (or) wetter climate for continental western North America. Contrary to this, a reconstruction of the distribution of Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in western Canada indicates that they were located north of their modern distribution, suggesting warmer and (or) drier conditions at 6000 BP. This interpretation is strengthened by observations of lower lake levels at 6000 BP in western Canada. This drier climate may have been associated with warmer conditions as indicated by the quantitative climate reconstructions. In general, eastern North America was drier, while western North America was warmer and drier at 6 ka compared to the present. A model of vegetation and carbon storage, when forced using 6 ka Canadian Climate Model and pollen-based climate reconstructions, showed an increase in area covered by boreal forest, extending north and south of the present location. This was not, however, verified by the fossil data. Additionally, the model showed little total change in carbon storage at 6 ka in the terrestrial biosphere. Estimated sea surface temperatures off eastern Canada suggest warmer surface waters at 6 ka, in agreement with reconstructions based on terrestrial records from the eastern seaboard.
Fung, I Y., and Jasmin G John, et al., 1997: Carbon 13 exchanges between the atmosphere and biosphere. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11(4), DOI:10.1029/97GB01751. Abstract
We present a detailed investigation of the gross 12C and 13C exchanges between the atmosphere and biosphere and their influence on the δ13C variations in the atmosphere. The photosynthetic discrimination Δ against 13C is derived from a biophysical model coupled to a general circulation model [Sellers et al., 1996a], where stomatal conductance and carbon assimilation are determined simultaneously with the ambient climate. The δ13C of the respired carbon is calculated by a biogeochemical model [Potter et al., 1993; Randerson et al., 1996] as the sum of the contributions from compartments with varying ages. The global flux-weighted mean photosynthetic discrimination is 12–16‰, which is lower than previous estimates. Factors that lower the discrimination are reduced stomatal conductance and C4 photosynthesis. The decreasing atmospheric δ13C causes an isotopic disequilibrium between the outgoing and incoming fluxes; the disequilibrium is ∼0.33‰ for 1988. The disequilibrium is higher than previous estimates because it accounts for the lifetime of trees and for the ages rather than turnover times of the biospheric pools. The atmospheric δ13C signature resulting from the biospheric fluxes is investigated using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer model. The isotopic disequilibrium alone produces a hemispheric difference of ∼0.02‰ in atmospheric δ13C, comparable to the signal from a hypothetical carbon sink of 0.5 Gt C yr−1 into the midlatitude northern hemisphere biosphere. However, the rectifier effect, due to the seasonal covariation of CO2 fluxes and height of the atmospheric boundary layer, yields a background δ13C gradient of the opposite sign. These effects nearly cancel thus favoring a stronger net biospheric uptake than without the background CO2 gradient. Our analysis of the globally averaged carbon budget for the decade of the 1980s indicates that the biospheric uptake of fossil fuel CO2 is likely to be greater than the oceanic uptake; the relative proportions of the sinks cannot be uniquely determined using 12C and 13C alone. The land-ocean sink partitioning requires, in addition, information about the land use source, isotopic disequilibrium associated with gross oceanic exchanges, as well as the fractions of C3 and C4 vegetation involved in the biospheric uptake.
Friedlingstein, Pierre, I Y Fung, E Holland, and Jasmin G John, et al., 1995: On the contribution of CO2 fertilization to the missing biospheric sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 9(4), DOI:10.1029/95GB02381. Abstract
A gridded biospheric carbon model is used to investigate the impact of the atmospheric CO2 increase on terrestrial carbon storage. The analysis shows that the calculated CO2 fertilization sink is dependent not just on the mathematical formulation of the “β factor” but also on the relative controls of net primary productivity (NPP), carbon residence times, and resource availability. The modeled evolution of the biosphere for the period 1850–1990 shows an increasing lag between NPP and the heterotrophic respiration. The time evolution of the modeled biospheric sink (i.e., difference between enhanced NPP and enhanced respiration) does not match that obtained by deconvolution of the ice core CO2 time series. Agreement between the two is reasonable for the first half of the period, but during the recent decades the deconvoluted CO2 increase is much too fast to be explained by the CO2 fertilization effect only. Therefore other mechanisms than CO2 fertilization should also contribute to the missing sink. Our results suggest that about two thirds to three fourths of the 1850–1990 integrated missing sink is due to the CO2 greening of the biosphere. The remainder may be due to the increased level of nitrogen deposition starting around 1950.
Friedlingstein, Pierre, K C Prentice, I Y Fung, Jasmin G John, and G P Brasseur, 1995: Carbon-biosphere-climate interactions in the last glacial maximum climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(D4), DOI:10.1029/94JD02948. Abstract
The total carbon inventory in the terrestrial biosphere in the last glacial maximum (LGM), 18 kyr ago, is analyzed in a series of experiments that examine the sensitivity of the inventory to vegetation distribution and carbon dynamics. The results show that for most forest vegetation types, carbon densities for the LGM are within 10% of their present-day values. Discrepancies between vegetation distributions simulated by two bioclimatic schemes are attributable to the assignation of vegetation types to climates with rare or no present-day analog. The model experiments, combined with palynogical data for regions with no present-day analog climate, yield to a decrease of 612 ± 105 Gt C compared to present day.
Bouwman, A F., I Y Fung, E Matthews, and Jasmin G John, 1993: Global analysis of the potential for N2O production in natural soils. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 7(3), DOI:10.1029/93GB01186. Abstract
A simple global model of the production potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) in natural soils is developed to analyze the relative importance, both geographically and seasonally, of the different controls on N2O production at the global scale. Five major controls on N2O production are included: (1) input of organic matter, (2) soil fertility, (3) soil moisture status, (4) temperature, and (5) soil oxygen status. Indices for the controls are derived from global gridded (1°×1° resolution) data bases of soil type, soil texture, NDVI and climate. The model explains close to 60% of the variability found in measurements reported at about 30 sites in six different ecosystems throughout the world. Although this result is reasonable for global analyses, the correlation is considered insufficient to make global estimates of nitrous oxide emission with confidence. The model confirms conclusions from earlier studies that the major source regions of nitrous oxide are in the tropics.
Matthews, E, Jasmin G John, and I Y Fung, 1993: Rice Cultivation and Methane Emission, Documentation of Distributed Geographic Data Sets. NASA Technical Memorandum, 104595.
Fung, I Y., and Jasmin G John, et al., 1991: Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(D7), DOI:10.1029/91JD01247. Abstract
The geographic and seasonal emission distributions of the major sources and sinks of atmospheric methane were compiled using methane flux measurements and energy and agricultural statistics in conjunction with global digital data bases of land surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. Chemical destruction of methane in the atmosphere was calculated using three-dimensional OH fields every 5 days taken from Spivakovsky et al. (1990a, b). The signatures of each of the sources and sinks in the atmosphere were simulated using a global three-dimensional tracer transport model. Candidate methane budget scenarios were constructed according to mass balance of methane and its carbon isotopes. The verisimilitude of the scenarios was tested by their ability to reproduce the meridional gradient and seasonal variations of methane observed in the atmosphere. Constraints imposed by all the atmospheric observations are satisfied simultaneously by several budget scenarios. A preferred budget comprises annual destruction rates of 450 Tg by OH oxidation and 10 Tg by soil absorption and annual emissions of 80 Tg from fossil sources, 80 Tg from domestic animals, and 35 Tg from wetlands and tundra poleward of 50°N. Emissions from landfills, tropical swamps, rice fields, biomass burning, and termites total 295 Tg; however, the individual contributions of these terms cannot be determined uniquely because of the lack of measurements of direct fluxes and of atmospheric methane variations in regions where these sources are concentrated.
Fung, I Y., and Jasmin G John, 1989: Interannual and longer-term changes of the terrestrial biosphere and their relationships to atmospheric CO2 variations In Proceedings of Third International Conference on Analysis and Evaluation of Atmospheric CO2 Data Present and Past, Geneva, Switzerland, Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Research Programme No. 59, World Meteorological Organization, WMO/TD No. 340.
