Wei, Xinyue, and Rong Zhang, November 2024: Weakening of the AMOC and strengthening of Labrador Sea deep convection in response to external freshwater forcing. Nature Communications, 15, 10357, DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-54756-3. Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key player in climate. Here, we employ an ensemble of water hosing experiments to examine mechanisms of AMOC weakening and its subsequent impact on the Labrador Sea open-ocean deep convection. The subpolar AMOC decline in response to the external freshwater flux released over the southern Nordic Sea is dominated by that across the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, and the largest subpolar AMOC decline is at the relatively dense level around
. The AMOC decline is associated with subsurface cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic and the decline in the deep ocean west–east density contrast across the subpolar basin. Contrary to previous studies showing that the AMOC decline is caused by subsurface warming through the shutdown of the Labrador Sea open-ocean deep convection, our results reveal a different response, i.e., a strengthening of the Labrador Sea open-ocean deep convection, which is not a cause of the AMOC decline. The strengthening of the Labrador Sea open-ocean deep convection is mainly due to the relatively stronger freshening in the deep Labrador Sea associated with the freshening/weakening of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow, and thus reduced vertical stratification in the central Labrador Sea.
Joshi, Rajat, and Rong Zhang, September 2023: Impacts of the North Atlantic biases on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over the extratropical North Pacific. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 151, DOI:10.1038/s41612-023-00482-4. Abstract
The winter upper troposphere/lower stratosphere temperature/vertical motion response over the extratropical North Pacific induced by North Atlantic changes is not well understood. Here, using robust diagnostic calculations conducted in a fully coupled high-resolution climate model, we correct the North Atlantic ocean circulation biases and show that during wintertime, the North Atlantic cold surface temperature biases lead to a warmer upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over the extratropical North Pacific. In the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over the extratropical North Pacific, this winter warming temperature response is linked to the vertical motion response through a simple leading order thermodynamic relationship between changes in the horizontal advection and adiabatic heating. The upper troposphere/lower stratosphere vertical motion response, which is also associated with the North Atlantic induced Walker circulation response over the tropical North Pacific, can provide a rough estimation of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere warming response over the extratropical North Pacific.
We describe the model performance of a new global coupled climate model configuration, CM4-MG2. Beginning with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's fourth-generation physical climate model (CM4.0), we incorporate a two-moment Morrison-Gettelman bulk stratiform microphysics scheme with prognostic precipitation (MG2), and a mineral dust and temperature-dependent cloud ice nucleation scheme. We then conduct and analyze a set of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice simulations, following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 protocols. CM4-MG2 generally captures CM4.0's baseline simulation characteristics, but with several improvements, including better marine stratocumulus clouds off the west coasts of Africa and North and South America, a reduced bias toward “double” Intertropical Convergence Zones south of the equator, and a stronger Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Some degraded features are also identified, including excessive Arctic sea ice extent and a stronger-than-observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Compared to CM4.0, the climate sensitivity is reduced by about 10% in CM4-MG2.
The ventilation of the central Labrador Sea is important for the uptake of ocean tracers and carbon. Using historical ocean observations, we construct a simple multiple linear regression model that successfully reconstructs the decadal variability of the upper ∼2,000 m of the central Labrador Sea water properties based on observed indices that represent two different open-ocean ventilation mechanisms. The first mechanism is the modification of deep ocean properties through local decadal variability of the Labrador Sea deep convective mixing. The second, more novel, mechanism is the climatological convective vertical redistribution of upper central Labrador Sea temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the nonlocal large-scale subpolar Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The ventilated decadal central Labrador Sea signal subsequently spreads into the western subpolar North Atlantic. The results have important implications for predicting decadal ventilated signals in the Labrador Sea that are associated with the large-scale climate variability.
Wei, Xinyue, and Rong Zhang, July 2022: A simple conceptual model for the self-sustained multidecadal AMOC variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(14), DOI:10.1029/2022GL099800. Abstract
Multidecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been reconstructed by various proxies, simulated in climate models, and linked to multidecadal Arctic salinity variability. Here we construct a simple conceptual model to understand the two-way interactions of the Arctic with multidecadal AMOC variability through a delayed oscillator mechanism. We revise Stommel's Two-Box Model by including an advective time delay for the Arctic density/salinity anomalies to reach the subpolar North Atlantic and a coupled negative feedback between the AMOC and the freshwater flux entering the Arctic through atmosphere and/or sea ice responses. Self-sustained multidecadal AMOC oscillations exist in the revised Stommel's Two-Box model if the oceanic advective time delay is longer than the oscillation threshold, and the periods of the AMOC delayed oscillator depend crucially on this advective time delay. The coupled freshwater feedback provides additional delayed negative feedback and reduces the advective time delay threshold required for the oscillations.
Zhang, Rong, and Matthew Thomas, June 2021: Horizontal circulation across density surfaces contributes substantially to the long-term mean northern Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, 112, DOI:10.1038/s43247-021-00182-y. Abstract
The Greenland Sea is often viewed as the northern terminus of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. It has also been proposed that the shutdown of open-ocean deep convection in the Labrador or Greenland Seas would substantially weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we analyze Robust Diagnostic Calculations conducted in a high-resolution global coupled climate model constrained by observed hydrographic climatology to provide a holistic picture of the long-term mean Atlantic Overturning Circulation at northern high latitudes. Our results suggest that the Arctic Ocean, not the Greenland Sea, is the northern terminus of the mean Atlantic Overturning Circulation; open-ocean deep convection, in either the Labrador or Greenland Seas, contributes minimally to the mean Atlantic Overturning Circulation, hence it would not necessarily be substantially weakened by a shutdown of open-ocean deep convection; horizontal circulation across sloping isopycnals contributes substantially (more than 40%) to the maximum mean northeastern subpolar Atlantic Overturning Circulation.
Menary, M, J Robson, Richard P Allan, Ben B B Booth, Christophe Cassou, G Gastineau, Jonathan M Gregory, D Hodson, C Jones, J Mignot, M A Ringer, Rowan Sutton, Laura J Wilcox, and Rong Zhang, July 2020: Aerosol‐forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14), DOI:10.1029/2020GL088166. Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally and globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that the multimodel mean AMOC strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850–1985 in new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a larger change than was seen in CMIP5. Across the models, the strength of the AMOC trend up to 1985 is related to a proxy for the strength of the aerosol forcing. Therefore, the multimodel difference is a result of stronger anthropogenic aerosol forcing on average in CMIP6 than CMIP5, which is primarily due to more models including aerosol‐cloud interactions. However, observational constraints—including a historical sea surface temperature fingerprint and shortwave radiative forcing in recent decades—suggest that anthropogenic forcing and/or the AMOC response may be overestimated.
GFDL's new CM4.0 climate model has high transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities near the middle of the upper half of CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models have been criticized for excessive sensitivity based on observations of present‐day warming and heat uptake and estimates of radiative forcing. An ensemble of historical simulations with CM4.0 produces warming and heat uptake that are consistent with these observations under forcing that is at the middle of the assessed distribution. Energy budget‐based methods for estimating sensitivities based on these quantities underestimate CM4.0's sensitivities when applied to its historical simulations. However, we argue using a simple attribution procedure that CM4.0's warming evolution indicates excessive transient sensitivity to greenhouse gases. This excessive sensitivity is offset prior to recent decades by excessive response to aerosol and land use changes.
We document the configuration and emergent simulation features from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) OM4.0 ocean/sea‐ice model. OM4 serves as the ocean/sea‐ice component for the GFDL climate and Earth system models. It is also used for climate science research and is contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6/OMIP). The ocean component of OM4 uses version 6 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) and the sea‐ice component uses version 2 of the Sea Ice Simulator (SIS2), which have identical horizontal grid layouts (Arakawa C‐grid). We follow the Coordinated Ocean‐sea ice Reference Experiments (CORE) protocol to assess simulation quality across a broad suite of climate relevant features. We present results from two versions differing by horizontal grid spacing and physical parameterizations: OM4p5 has nominal 0.5° spacing and includes mesoscale eddy parameterizations and OM4p25 has nominal 0.25° spacing with no mesoscale eddy parameterization.
MOM6 makes use of a vertical Lagrangian‐remap algorithm that enables general vertical coordinates. We show that use of a hybrid depth‐isopycnal coordinate reduces the mid‐depth ocean warming drift commonly found in pure z* vertical coordinate ocean models. To test the need for the mesoscale eddy parameterization used in OM4p5, we examine the results from a simulation that removes the eddy parameterization. The water mass structure and model drift are physically degraded relative to OM4p5, thus supporting the key role for a mesoscale closure at this resolution.
We describe GFDL's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the pre‐industrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasi‐periodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
Li, F, S Lozier, Gokhan Danabasoglu, N P Holliday, Young-Oh Kwon, Anastasia Romanou, Stephen G Yeager, and Rong Zhang, July 2019: Local and downstream relationships between Labrador Sea Water volume and North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability. Journal of Climate, 32(13), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0735.1. Abstract
While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively nor validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean and ocean–sea-ice models forced by the same interannually-varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy-permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half-century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a multivariate phenomenon. Here for the first time we obtain a multivariate AMV index (MAI) and associated patterns using Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (MEOF) analysis to explore the multivariate nature of AMV. Coherent multidecadal variability that is unique to the Atlantic is found in the observed MEOF‐extracted AMV, various AMV‐related indices, and an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. For comparison, the signal associated with global mean sea surface temperature (SST) is removed from both observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. The residual CMIP5 forced basin‐wide SST‐based AMV index disagrees strongly with the observed residual, which retains a strong AMV signal. The MEOF approach still extracts a residual CMIP5 forced AMV signal that is unique to the Atlantic, although very different from observations. Our findings suggest that the observed AMV is not dominated by external forcing.
Zhang, Rong, et al., June 2019: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts. Reviews of Geophysics, 57(2), DOI:10.1029/2019RG000644. Abstract
By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts, and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, e.g., Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era; that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background; and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.
Li, Dawei, Rong Zhang, and Thomas R Knutson, February 2018: Comparison of Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice in Three Coupled Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 31(3), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0617.1. Abstract
In this study, the mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice are analyzed using long control simulations from three coupled climate models (GFDL CM2.1, GFDL CM3, and NCAR CESM). Despite different Arctic sea ice mean states, there are many robust features in the response of low-frequency summer Arctic sea ice variability to the three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific oceanic heat transport into the Arctic and the Arctic Dipole) across all three models. In all three models, an enhanced Atlantic (Pacific) heat transport into the Arctic induces summer Arctic sea ice decline and surface warming, especially over the Atlantic (Pacific) sector of the Arctic. A positive phase of the Arctic Dipole induces summer Arctic sea ice decline and surface warming on the Pacific side, and opposite changes on the Atlantic side. There is robust Bjerknes Compensation at low frequency, so that the northward atmospheric heat transport provides a negative feedback to summer Arctic sea ice variations. The influence of the Arctic Dipole on summer Arctic sea ice extent is more (less) effective in simulations with less (excessive) climatological summer sea ice in the Atlantic sector. The response of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) to the three key predictors is stronger in models that have thicker climatological Arctic sea ice.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has profound impacts on various climate phenomena. Using both observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5), here we show that most models underestimate the amplitude of low‐frequency (decadal) AMOC variability. We further show that stronger low‐frequency AMOC variability leads to stronger linkages between the AMOC and key variables associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), and between the subpolar AMV signal and northern hemisphere surface air temperature (NHSAT). Low‐frequency extra‐tropical NHSAT variability might increase with the amplitude of low‐frequency AMOC variability. Atlantic decadal predictability is much higher in models with stronger low‐frequency AMOC variability, and much lower in models with weaker or without AMOC variability. Our results suggest that simulating realistic low‐frequency AMOC variability is very important, both for simulating realistic linkages between AMOC and AMV‐related variables and for achieving substantially higher Atlantic decadal predictability.
Barcikowska, Monika, Thomas R Knutson, and Rong Zhang, January 2017: Observed and simulated fingerprints of multidecadal climate variability, and their contributions to periods of global SST stagnation. Journal of Climate, 30(2), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0443.1. Abstract
This study investigates spatio-temporal features of multidecadal climate variability, using observations and climate model simulation. Aside from a long-term warming trend, observational SST and atmospheric circulation records are dominated by a ~65yr variability component. Though its center of action is over the North Atlantic, but it manifests also over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, suggesting a tropical inter-basin teleconnection maintained through an atmospheric bridge.
Our analysis shows that simulated internal climate variability in a coupled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0) reproduces the main spatio-temporal features of the observed component. Model-based multidecadal variability comprises a coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnection, established through a zonally oriented atmospheric overturning circulation between the tropical North Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific. During the warm SST phase in the North Atlantic, increasing SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic strengthen locally ascending air motion and intensify subsidence and low-level divergence in the eastern tropical Pacific. This corresponds with a strengthening of trade winds and cooling in the tropical central Pacific.
The model’s derived component substantially shapes its global climate variability and is tightly linked to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This suggests potential predictive utility and underscores the importance of correctly representing North Atlantic variability in simulations of global and regional climate.
If the observations-based component of variability originates from internal climate processes, as found in the model, the recently observed (1970s-2000s) North Atlantic warming and eastern tropical Pacific cooling might presage an ongoing transition to a cold North Atlantic phase with possible implications for near-term global temperature evolution.
The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability is investigated using models and observations. Coupled climate models are used in which the ocean component is either a fully dynamic ocean, or a slab ocean with no resolved ocean heat transport. On time scales less than ten years NAO variations drive a tripole pattern of SST anomalies in both observations and models. This SST pattern is a direct response of the ocean mixed layer to turbulent surface heat flux anomalies associated with the NAO.
On time scales longer than ten years a similar relationship exists between the NAO and the tripole pattern of SST anomalies in models with a slab ocean. A different relationship exists both for the observations and for models with a dynamic ocean. In these models a positive (negative) NAO anomaly leads, after a decadal-scale lag, to a monopole pattern of warming (cooling) that resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), although with smaller than observed amplitudes of tropical SST anomalies. Ocean dynamics are critical to this decadal scale response in the models. The simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strengthens (weakens) in response to a prolonged positive (negative) phase of the NAO, thereby enhancing (decreasing) poleward heat transport, leading to broad scale warming (cooling).
We use additional simulations in which heat flux anomalies derived from observed NAO variations from 1901 to 2014 are applied to the ocean component of coupled models. We show that ocean dynamics allow models to reproduce important aspects of the observed AMO, mainly in the subpolar gyre.
Li, Dawei, Rong Zhang, and Thomas R Knutson, April 2017: On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline. Nature Communications, 8, 14991, DOI:10.1038/ncomms14991. Abstract
This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.
Smedsrud, L H., M H Halvorsen, Julienne Stroeve, Rong Zhang, and K Kloster, January 2017: Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years. The Cryosphere, 11(1), DOI:10.5194/tc-11-65-2017. Abstract
A new long-term data record of Fram Strait sea ice area export from 1935 to 2014 is developed using a combination of satellite radar images and station observations of surface pressure across Fram Strait. This data record shows that the long-term annual mean export is about 880 000 km2, representing 10 % of the sea-ice-covered area inside the basin. The time series has large interannual and multi-decadal variability but no long-term trend. However, during the last decades, the amount of ice exported has increased, with several years having annual ice exports that exceeded 1 million km2. This increase is a result of faster southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure over Greenland. Evaluating the trend onwards from 1979 reveals an increase in annual ice export of about +6 % per decade, with spring and summer showing larger changes in ice export (+11 % per decade) compared to autumn and winter (+2.6 % per decade). Increased ice export during winter will generally result in new ice growth and contributes to thinning inside the Arctic Basin. Increased ice export during summer or spring will, in contrast, contribute directly to open water further north and a reduced summer sea ice extent through the ice–albedo feedback. Relatively low spring and summer export from 1950 to 1970 is thus consistent with a higher mid-September sea ice extent for these years. Our results are not sensitive to long-term change in Fram Strait sea ice concentration. We find a general moderate influence between export anomalies and the following September sea ice extent, explaining 18 % of the variance between 1935 and 2014, but with higher values since 2004.
Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s. However, the cause of this variability is debated. Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations. Directly observed North Atlantic sulfate aerosol optical depth has not increased (but shows a modest decline) over this period, suggesting the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005–2015 is not likely due to recent changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Instead, we find coherent multidecadal variations involving the inferred AMOC and Atlantic major hurricane frequency, along with indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and inverted vertical wind shear. Our results provide evidence for an important role of the AMOC in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.
Zhang, Rong, August 2017: On the Persistence and Coherence of Subpolar Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Anomalies Associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(15), DOI:10.1002/2017GL074342. Abstract
This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model that can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism: e.g. decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process, but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.
Brown, Patrick T., S Lozier, Rong Zhang, and Wenhong Li, April 2016: The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(8), DOI:10.1002/2016GL068303. Abstract
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), characterized by basin-scale multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has traditionally been interpreted as the surface signature of variability in oceanic heat convergence (OHC) associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This view has been challenged by recent studies that show that AMOC variability is not simultaneously meridionally coherent over the North Atlantic and that AMOC-induced low-frequency variability of OHC is weak in the tropical North Atlantic. Here we present modeling evidence that the AMO-related SST variability over the extratropical North Atlantic results directly from anomalous OHC associated with the AMOC but that the emergence of the coherent multidecadal SST variability over the tropical North Atlantic requires cloud feedback. Our study identifies atmospheric processes as a necessary component for the existence of a basin-scale AMO, thus amending the canonical view that the AMOC-AMO connection is solely attributable to oceanic processes.
Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice1, large-scale warming2 and increased tropical storm activity3 in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes4, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations5. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.
Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models’ warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (∼100-km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (∼10-km ocean, ∼50-km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.
Clement et al. (Reports, 16 October 2015, p. 320) claim that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a thermodynamic response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic atmospheric forcing and that ocean circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO. These claims are not justified. We show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the AMO.
We characterize impacts on heat in the ocean climate system from transient ocean mesoscale eddies. Our tool is a suite of centennial-scale 1990 radiatively forced numerical climate simulations from three GFDL coupled models comprising the CM2-O model suite. CM2-O models differ in their ocean resolution: CM2.6 uses a 0.1° ocean grid, CM2.5 uses an intermediate grid with 0.25° spacing, and CM2-1deg uses a nominally 1.0° grid.
Analysis of the ocean heat budget reveals that mesoscale eddies act to transport heat upward in a manner that partially compensates (or offsets) for the downward heat transport from the time mean currents. Stronger vertical eddy heat transport in CM2.6 relative to CM2.5 accounts for the significantly smaller temperature drift in CM2.6. The mesoscale eddy parameterization used in CM2-1deg also imparts an upward heat transport, yet it differs systematically from that found in CM2.6. This analysis points to the fundamental role that ocean mesoscale features play in transient ocean heat uptake. In general, the more accurate simulation found in CM2.6 provides an argument for either including a rich representation of the ocean mesoscale in model simulations of the mean and transient climate, or for employing parameterizations that faithfully reflect the role of eddies in both lateral and vertical heat transport.
Keenlyside, N, Jin Ba, J Mecking, N-E Omrani, M Latif, Rong Zhang, and Rym Msadek, October 2015: North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability — Mechanisms and Predictability In Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond, DOI:10.1142/9789814579933_0009. Abstract
The North Atlantic Ocean undergoes pronounced basin-wide, multi-decadal variations. The corresponding fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) have become known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). AMV is receiving increasing attention for three key reasons: (1) it has been linked to climate impacts of major socio-economic importance, such as Sahel rainfall; (2) it may temporarily mask anthropogenic global warming not only in the North Atlantic Sector, but over the Northern Hemisphere (NH); and (3) it appears to be predictable on decadal timescales. This chapter provides an overview of current understanding of AMV, summarizing proposed mechanisms, our ability to simulate and predict it, as well as challenges for future research.
Sanchez-Franks, A, and Rong Zhang, November 2015: Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the decadal variability of the Gulf Stream path and regional chlorophyll and nutrient concentrations. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(22), DOI:10.1002/2015GL066262. Abstract
In this study, we show that the underlying physical driver for the decadal variability in the Gulf Stream (GS) path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low frequency variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). There is a significant anticorrelation between AMOC variations and the meridional shifts of the GS path at decadal time scale in both observations and two Earth system models (ESMs). The chlorophyll and nutrient concentrations in the GS region are found significantly correlated with the AMOC fingerprint and anticorrelated with the GS path at decadal time scale through coherent isopycnal changes in the GS front in the ESMs. Our results illustrate how changes in the large-scale ocean circulation, such as AMOC, are teleconnected with regional decadal physical and biogeochemical variations near the North American east coast. Such linkages are useful for predicting future physical and biogeochemical variations in this region.
Zhang, Rong, April 2015: Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(15), DOI:10.1073/pnas.1422296112. Abstract
Satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, which has played a leading role in the observed recent Arctic surface warming and has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the most rapid decline occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. Previous studies are often focused on a single mechanism for changes and variations of summer Arctic sea ice extent, and many are based on short observational records. The key players for summer Arctic sea ice extent variability at multidecadal/centennial time scales and their contributions to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author’s knowledge, to provide a framework to quantify the contributions of three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific heat transport into the Arctic, and Arctic Dipole) to the internal low-frequency variability of Summer Arctic sea ice extent, using a 3,600-y-long control climate model simulation. The results suggest that changes in these key predictors could have contributed substantially to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice. The modeling results also suggest that at multidecadal/centennial time scales, variations in the atmosphere heat transport across the Arctic Circle are forced by anticorrelated variations in the Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic.
Zhang, J, and Rong Zhang, July 2015: On the Evolution of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Fingerprint and Implications for Decadal Predictability in the North Atlantic. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), DOI:10.1002/2015GL064596. Abstract
It has been suggested previously that the AMOC anomaly associated with changes in the North Atlantic Deep Water formation propagates southward with an advection speed north of 34°N. In this study, using GFDL CM2.1, we show that this slow southward propagation of the AMOC anomaly is crucial for the evolution and the enhanced decadal predictability of the AMOC fingerprint - the leading mode of upper ocean heat content (UOHC) in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. A positive AMOC anomaly in northern high latitudes leads to a convergence/divergence of the Atlantic meridional heat transport (MHT) anomaly in the subpolar/Gulf Stream region, thus warming in the subpolar gyre (SPG) and cooling in the Gulf Stream region after several years. Recent decadal prediction studies successfully predicted the observed warm shift in the SPG in the mid 1990s. Our results here provide the physical mechanism for the enhanced decadal prediction skills in the SPG UOHC.
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could have a profound impact on global scale climate, as indicated by both observations and climate model simulations. This review chapter highlights the global and regional scale climate impacts of the AMOC on paleo and modern climate, the tropical and extra-tropical AMOC fingerprints and the origin of the multidecadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variations, the meridional coherence and propagation of AMOC variations, as well as the impacts of the Nordic Sea overflow on the AMOC and large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation. The results reviewed in this chapter are mainly focused on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate modeling results and their comparisons with available paleo and modern observations, although modelling results from some other climate models are also discussed.
Lynch-Stieglitz, J, M Schmidt, L G Henry, W B Curry, L C Skinner, S Mulitza, Rong Zhang, and P Chang, February 2014: Muted change in Atlantic overturning circulation over some glacial-aged Heinrich events. Nature Geoscience, 7(2), DOI:10.1038/ngeo2045. Abstract
Heinrich events—surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean—punctuated the last glacial period. The events are associated with millennial-scale cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. Fresh water from the melting icebergs is thought to have interrupted the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus minimizing heat transport into the northern North Atlantic. The northward flow of warm water passes through the Florida Straits and is reflected in the distribution of seawater properties in this region. Here we investigate the northward flow through this region over the past 40,000 years using oxygen isotope measurements of benthic foraminifera from two cores on either side of the Florida Straits. These measurements allow us to estimate water density, which is related to flow through the thermal wind balance. We infer a substantial reduction of flow during Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas cooling, but little change during Heinrich Events 2 and 3, which occurred during an especially cold phase of the last glacial period. We speculate that because glacial circulation was already weakened before the onset of Heinrich Events 2 and 3, freshwater forcing had little additional effect. However, low-latitude climate perturbations were observed during all events. We therefore suggest that these perturbations may not have been directly caused by changes in heat transport associated with Atlantic overturning circulation as commonly assumed.
Decadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of CMIP5 using the GFDL-CM2.1 forecast system. The abrupt warming of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) that was observed in the mid 1990s is considered as a case study to evaluate our forecast capabilities and better understand the reasons for the observed changes. Initializing the CM2.1 coupled system produces high skill in retrospectively predicting the mid-90s shift, which is not captured by the uninitialized forecasts. All the hindcasts initialized in the early 90s show a warming of the SPG, however, only the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized in 1995 and 1996 are able to reproduce the observed abrupt warming and the associated decrease and contraction of the SPG. Examination of the physical mechanisms responsible for the successful retrospective predictions indicates that initializing the ocean is key to predict the mid 90s warming. The successful initialized forecasts show an increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and North Atlantic current transport, which drive an increased advection of warm saline subtropical waters northward, leading to a westward shift of the subpolar front and subsequently a warming and spin down of the SPG. Significant seasonal climate impacts are predicted as the SPG warms, including a reduced sea-ice concentration over the Arctic, an enhanced warming over central US during summer and fall, and a northward shift of the mean ITCZ. These climate anomalies are similar to those observed during a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which is encouraging for future predictions of North Atlantic climate.
In our original paper (Vecchi et al., 2013, hereafter V13) we stated “the skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of the mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution”. Smith et al (2013, hereafter S13) challenge that assertion, contending that DePreSys was able to make a successful retrospective forecast of that shift. We stand by our original assertion, and present additional analyses using output from DePreSys retrospective forecasts to support our assessment.
The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2�C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1�C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.
Leech, P J., J Lynch-Stieglitz, and Rong Zhang, February 2013: Western Pacific Thermocline Structure and the Pacific Marine Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Last Glacial Maximum. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 363, DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2012.12.026. Abstract
Paleoclimate proxy evidence suggests a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during times of Northern Hemisphere cooling, including the Last Glacial Maximum, 19–23 ka before present. However, evidence for movement over the Pacific has mainly been limited to precipitation reconstructions near the continents, and the position of the Pacific marine ITCZ is less well constrained. In this study, we address this problem by taking advantage of the fact that the upper ocean density structure reflects the overlying wind field. We reconstruct changes in the upper ocean density structure during the LGM using oxygen isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifera G. ruber and G. tumida in a transect of sediment cores from the Western Tropical Pacific. The data suggests a ridge in the thermocline just north of the present-day ITCZ persists for at least part of the LGM, and a structure in the Southern Hemisphere that differs from today. The reconstructed structure is consistent with that produced in a General Circulation Model with both a Northern and Southern Hemisphere ITCZ.
Retrospective predictions of multi-year North Atlantic hurricane frequency are explored, by applying a hybrid statistical-dynamical forecast system to initialized and non-initialized multi-year forecasts of tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two global climate model forecast systems. By accounting for impacts of initialization and radiative forcing, retrospective predictions of five-year mean and nine-year mean tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency show significant correlation relative to a null hypothesis of zero correlation. The retrospective correlations are increased in a two-model average forecast and by using a lagged-ensemble approach, with the two-model ensemble decadal forecasts hurricane frequency over 1961-2011 yielding correlation coefficients that approach 0.9.
These encouraging retrospective multi-year hurricane predictions, however, should be interpreted with care: although initialized forecasts have higher nominal skill than uninitialized ones, the relatively short record and large autocorrelation of the time series limits our confidence in distinguishing between the skill due to external forcing and that added by initialization. The nominal increase in correlation in the initialized forecasts relative to the uninitialized experiments is due to improved representation of the multi-year tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. The skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of a mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution. Predicting shifts like that observed in 1994-1995 remains a critical issue for the success of multi-year forecasts of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The retrospective forecasts highlight the possibility that changes in observing system impact forecast performance.
The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2m air temperature (T2m) in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (APT) analysis. Comparison of retrospective forecasts initialized using the GFDL's Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations using the same model, allows identification of internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) for SST and T2m. The IMP of SST is characterized by an inter-hemisphere dipole, with warm anomalies centered in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region and North Pacific subpolar gyre region, and cold anomalies centered in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The IMP of T2m is characterized by a general bi-polar seesaw, with warm anomalies centered in Greenland, and cold anomalies centered in Antarctica. The retrospective prediction skill of the initialized system, verified against independent observations, indicates that the IMP of SST may be predictable up to 4 (10) year lead time at 95% (90%) significance level, and the IMP of T2m may be predictable up to 2 (10) years at 95% (90%) significance level. The initialization of multidecadal variations of northward oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic significantly improves the predictive skill of the IMP. The dominant roles of oceanic internal dynamics in decadal prediction are further elucidated by fixed-forcing experiments, in which radiative forcing is returned to 1961 values. These results point towards the possibility of meaningful decadal climate outlooks using dynamical coupled models, if they are appropriately initialized from a sustained climate observing system.
Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently Booth et al (2012) showed that the HadGEM2-ES climate model closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the 20th century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modify net surface shortwave radiation. On the basis of these results, Booth et al (2012) concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anti-correlation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability.
Zhang, Rong, and Thomas R Knutson, September 2013: The role of global climate change in the extreme low summer Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(9), S23-S26.
We present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model (GFDL CM2.5). The GFDL CM2.5 model has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 Km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 Km in the tropics to 8 Km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes.
We present analyses based on the output of a 280 year control simulation; we also present results based on a 140 year simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% per year until doubling after 70 years.
Results are compared to the GFDL CM2.1 climate model, which has somewhat similar physics but coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5.
The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.
Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified,
primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts
based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the "confident"
prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.
Mahajan, S, Rong Zhang, and Thomas L Delworth, December 2011: Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature and sea-ice variability. Journal of Climate, 24(24), DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4002.1. Abstract
The simulated impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the low frequency variability of the Arctic Surface Air temperature (SAT) and sea-ice extent is studied with a 1000 year-long segment of a control simulation of GFDL CM2.1 climate model. The simulated AMOC variations in the control simulation are found to be significantly anti-correlated with the Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies and significantly correlated with the Arctic SAT anomalies on decadal timescales in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. The maximum anti-correlation with the Arctic sea-ice extent and the maximum correlation with the Arctic SAT occur when the AMOC Index leads by one year. An intensification of the AMOC is associated with a sea-ice decline in the Labrador, Greenland and Barents Seas in the control simulation, with the largest change occurring in the winter. The recent declining trend in the satellite observed sea-ice extent also shows a similar pattern in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in the winter, suggesting the possibility of a role of the AMOC in the recent Arctic sea-ice decline in addition to anthropogenic greenhouse gas induced warming. However, in the summer, the simulated sea-ice response to the AMOC in the Pacific sector of the Arctic is much weaker than the observed declining trend, indicating a stronger role for other climate forcings or variability in the recently observed summer sea-ice decline in the Chukchi, Beaufort, East Siberian and Laptev Seas.
Recent studies have suggested that the leading modes of North Atlantic subsurface temperature (Tsub) and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies are induced by Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations and can be used as fingerprints of AMOC variability. Based on these fingerprints of the AMOC in the GFDL CM2.1 coupled climate model, a linear statistical predictive model of observed fingerprints of AMOC variability is developed in this study. The statistical model predicts a weakening of AMOC strength in a few years after its peak around 2005. Here, we show that in the GFDL coupled climate model assimilated with observed subsurface temperature data, including recent Argo network data (2003–2008), the leading mode of the North Atlantic Tsub anomalies is similar to that found with the objectively analyzed Tsub data and highly correlated with the leading mode of altimetry SSH anomalies for the period 1993–2008. A statistical auto-regressive (AR) model is fit to the time-series of the leading mode of objectively analyzed detrended North Atlantic Tsub anomalies (1955–2003) and is applied to assimilated Tsub and altimetry SSH anomalies to make predictions. A similar statistical AR model, fit to the time-series of the leading mode of modeled Tsub anomalies from the 1000-year GFDL CM2.1 control simulation, is applied to predict modeled Tsub, SSH, and AMOC anomalies. The two AR models show comparable skills in predicting observed Tsub and modeled Tsub, SSH and AMOC variations.
Wu, S, Zhengyu Liu, Rong Zhang, and Thomas L Delworth, February 2011: On the observed relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography, 67(1), DOI:10.1007/s10872-011-0003-x. Abstract
We studied the relationship between the dominant patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. The patterns are known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In the analysis we used two different observational data sets for SST. Due to the high degree of serial correlation in the PDO and AMO time series, various tests were carried out to assess the significance of the correlations. The results demonstrated that the correlations are significant when the PDO leads the AMO by 1 year and when the AMO leads the PDO by 11–12 years. The possible physical processes involved are discussed, along with their potential implication for decadal prediction.
The sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow is investigated for the first time using a high resolution eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.5). The Nordic Sea overflow is perturbed through the change of the bathymetry in GFDL CM2.5. We analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) adjustment process and the downstream oceanic response to the perturbation. The results suggest that north of 34N, AMOC changes induced by changes in the Nordic Sea overflow propagate on the slow tracer advection time scale, instead of the fast Kelvin wave time scale, resulting in a time lead of several years between subpolar and subtropical AMOC changes. The results also show that a stronger and deeper-penetrating Nordic Sea overflow leads to stronger and deeper AMOC, stronger northward ocean heat transport, reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, stronger cyclonic Northern Recirculation Gyre (NRG), westward shift of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and southward shift of the Gulf Stream, warmer sea surface temperature (SST) east of Newfoundland and colder SST south of the Grand Banks, stronger and deeper NAC and Gulf Stream, and stronger oceanic eddy activities along the NAC and the Gulf Stream paths. A stronger/weaker Nordic Sea overflow also leads to a contracted/expanded subpolar gyre (SPG). This sensitivity study points to the important role of the Nordic Sea overflow in the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation, and it is crucial for climate models to have a correct representation of the Nordic Sea overflow.
Chen, M-T, and Rong Zhang, et al., December 2010: Dynamic millennial-scale climate changes in the Northwestern Pacific over the past 40,000 years. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L23603, DOI:10.1029/2010GL045202. Abstract
Ice core records of polar temperatures and greenhouse gases document abrupt
millennial-scale oscillations that suggest the reduction or shutdown of thermohaline
Circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Ocean may induce the abrupt cooling in the northern hemisphere. It remains unknown, however, whether the sea surface
temperature (SST) is cooling or warming in the Kuroshio of the Northwestern Pacific
during the cooling event. Here we present an AMS 14C-dated foraminiferal Mg/Ca SST
record from the central Okinawa Trough and document that the SST variations exhibit
two steps of warming since 21 ka --- at 14.7 ka and 12.8 ka, and a cooling (~1.5°C)
during the interval of the Younger Dryas. By contrast, we observed no SST change or
oceanic warming (~1.5-2°C) during the episodes of Northern Hemisphere cooling
between ~21-40 ka. We therefore suggest that the “Antarctic-like” timing and amplitude
of millennial-scale SST variations in the subtropical Northwestern Pacific between 20-
40 ka may have been determined by rapid ocean adjustment processes in response to
abrupt wind stress and meridional temperature gradient changes in the North Pacific.
Joyce, Terrence M., and Rong Zhang, June 2010: On the path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 23(11), DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3310.1. Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated in various ocean-only and coupled atmosphere–ocean numerical models often varies in time because of either forced or internal variability. The path of the Gulf Stream (GS) is one diagnostic variable that seems to be sensitive to the amplitude of the AMOC, yet previous modeling studies show a diametrically opposed relationship between the two variables. In this note this issue is revisited, bringing together ocean observations and comparisons with the GFDL Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1), both of which suggest a more southerly (northerly) GS path when the AMOC is relatively strong (weak). Also shown are some examples of possible diagnostics to compare various models and observations on the relationship between shifts in GS path and changes in AMOC strength in future studies.
Zhang, Rong, Sarah M Kang, and Isaac M Held, January 2010: Sensitivity of climate change induced by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to cloud feedback. Journal of Climate, 23(2), DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI3118.1. Abstract
A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, we study the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.1). Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, while the effects of high cloud feedback are weaker. We conclude that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes.
Zhang, Rong, August 2010: Latitudinal dependence of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L16703, DOI:10.1029/2010GL044474. Abstract
AMOC variations are often thought to propagate with the Kelvin wave speed, resulting in a short time lead between high and low latitudes AMOC variations. However as shown in this paper using a coupled climate model (GFDL CM2.1), with the existence of interior pathways of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) from Flemish Cap to Cape Hatteras as that observed recently, AMOC variations estimated in density space propagate with the advection speed in this region, resulting in a much longer time lead (several years) between subpolar and subtropical AMOC variations and providing a more useful predictability. The results suggest that AMOC variations have significant meridional coherence in density space, and monitoring AMOC variations in density space at higher latitudes might reveal a stronger signal with a several-year time lead.
Zhang, Rong, December 2010: Northward intensification of anthropogenically forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L24603, DOI:10.1029/2010GL045054. Abstract
Extensive modeling studies show that changes in the anthropogenic forcing
due to increasing greenhouse gases might lead to a slowdown of the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the 21st century, but the AMOC
weakening estimated in most previous modeling studies is in depth space. Us-
ing a coupled ocean atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.1), this paper shows that
in density space, the anthropogenically forced AMOC changes over the 21st cen-
tury are intensified at northern high latitudes (nearly twice of those at lower lat-
itudes) due to changes in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation.
In contrast, anthropogenically forced AMOC changes are much smaller in depth
space at the same northern high latitudes. Hence projecting AMOC changes in
depth space would lead to a significant underestimation of AMOC changes as-
sociated with changes in NADW formation. The result suggests that monitor-
ing AMOC change signal at northern high latitudes in density space might re-
veal a much stronger signal than that at lower latitudes. The simulated AMOC
changes in density space under anthropogenic forcing can not be distinguished
from that induced by natural AMOC variability for at least the first 20 years of
the 21st century, although the signal can be detected over a much longer period.
230Th-dated oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from Sanbao Cave, China, characterize Asian Monsoon (AM) precipitation through the ends of the third- and fourthmost recent ice ages. As a result, AM records for the past four glacial terminations can now be precisely correlated with those from ice cores and marine sediments, establishing the timing and sequence of major events. In all four cases, observations are consistent with a classic Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity trigger for an initial retreat of northern ice sheets. Meltwater and icebergs entering the North Atlantic alter oceanic and atmospheric circulation and associated fluxes of heat and carbon, causing increases in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperatures that drive the termination in the Southern Hemisphere. Increasing CO2 and summer insolation drive recession of northern ice sheets, with probable positive feedbacks between sea level and CO2.
Erukhimova, T, Rong Zhang, and K P Bowman, February 2009: The climatological mean atmospheric transport under weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation climate scenario. Climate Dynamics, 32(2-3), DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0402-x. Abstract
Global atmospheric transport in a climate subject to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied by using climatological Green’s functions of the mass conservation equation for a conserved, passive tracer. Two sets of Green’s functions for the perturbed climate and for the present climate are evaluated from 11-year atmospheric trajectory calculations, based on 3-D winds simulated by GFDL’s newly developed global coupled ocean–atmosphere model (CM2.1). The Green’s function analysis reveals pronounced effects of the climate change on the atmospheric transport, including seasonally modified Hadley circulation with a stronger Northern Hemisphere cell in DJF and a weaker Southern Hemisphere cell in JJA. A weakened THC is also found to enhance mass exchange rates through mixing barriers between the tropics and the two extratropical zones. The response in the tropics is not zonally symmetric. The 3-D Green’s function analysis of the effect of THC weakening on transport in the tropical Pacific shows a modified Hadley cell in the eastern Pacific, confirming the results of our previous studies, and a weakening (strengthening) of the upward and eastward motion to the south (north) of the Equator in the western Pacific in the perturbed climate as compared to the present climate.
Wan, X, P Chang, R Saravanan, Rong Zhang, and M Schmidt, January 2009: On the interpretation of Caribbean paleo-temperature reconstructions during the Younger Dryas. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L02701, DOI:10.1029/2008GL035805. Abstract
A conundrum exists regarding whether the sea-surface temperatures decreased or increased over the southern Caribbean and the western Tropical Atlantic region during the Younger Dryas when the North Atlantic cooled substantially and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation was weakened significantly. Despite the proximity of core locations, some proxy reconstructions record a surface cooling, while others indicate a warming. We suggest that this seemingly paradoxical finding may, at least partially, be attributed to the competing physical processes that result in opposing signs of temperature change in the region in response to weakened North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments indicate that the temperature response over the southern Caribbean and Western Tropical Atlantic regions is complex and can vary considerably in small spatial scales, depending on the nature of physical processes that dominate.
Zhang, Rong, and Thomas L Delworth, March 2009: A new method for attributing climate variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin's main development region. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06701, DOI:10.1029/2009GL037260. Abstract
We propose a new approach to
decompose observed climate variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin's
main development region (MDR) into components attributable to radiative
forcing changes and to internal oceanic variability. Our attribution
suggests that the observed multidecadal anomalies of vertical shear (Uz) and
a simple index of maximum potential intensity (SIMPI) for tropical cyclones
are both dominated by internal variability, consistent with multidecadal
variations of Atlantic Hurricane activity; changes in radiative forcing led
to increasing Uz and decreasing SIMPI since the late 50's, unfavorable for
Atlantic Hurricane activity. Physically, at least for the GFDL model, sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies induced by ocean heat transport
variations are more efficient in producing negative Uz anomalies than that
induced by altered radiative forcing.
Chang, P, Rong Zhang, W Hazeleger, C. Wen, X Wan, L Ji, R J Haarsma, W-P Breugem, and H. Seidel, 2008: Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon. Nature Geoscience, 1(7), DOI:10.1038/ngeo218. Abstract
Abrupt changes in the African monsoon can have pronounced socioeconomic impacts on many West African countries. Evidence for both prolonged humid periods and monsoon failures have been identified throughout the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs1, 2. In particular, drought conditions in West Africa have occurred during periods of reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such as the Younger Dryas cold event1. Here, we use an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model to examine the link between oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and changes in the strength of the African monsoon. Our simulations show that when North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is substantially weakened, the flow of the subsurface North Brazil Current reverses. This leads to decreased upper tropical ocean stratification and warmer sea surface temperatures in the equatorial South Atlantic Ocean, and consequently reduces African summer monsoonal winds and rainfall over West Africa. This mechanism is in agreement with reconstructions of past climate. We therefore suggest that the interaction between thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean and wind-driven currents in the tropical Atlantic Ocean contributes to the rapidity of African monsoon transitions during abrupt climate change events.
Delworth, Thomas L., and Rong Zhang, et al., December 2008: The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In Abrupt Climate Change: Final Report, Synthesis & Assessment Product 3.4, CSSP, Reston, VA, U.S. Geological Survey, 258-359. PDF
Zhang, Rong, October 2008: Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L20705, DOI:10.1029/2008GL035463. Abstract
Satellite altimeter data shows a weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre during the 1990s, which is thought as an indicator of a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, whether the recent slowing subpolar gyre is a decadal variation or a long-term trend remains unclear. Here I show that altimeter data is highly correlated with instrumental subsurface ocean temperature data in the North Atlantic, and both show opposite signs between the subpolar gyre and the Gulf Stream path. Such a dipole pattern is a distinctive fingerprint of AMOC variability, as shown for the first time by a 1000-year coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation. The results suggest that, contrary to previous interpretations, the recent slowdown of the subpolar gyre is a part of a multidecadal variation and suggests a strengthening of the AMOC. The ongoing satellite and subsurface temperature measurements could be used to monitor future AMOC variations sensitively.
Delworth, Thomas L., Rong Zhang, and M E Mann, 2007: Decadal to centennial variability of the Atlantic from observations and models In Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, Geophysical Monograph Series 173, Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 131-148. Abstract PDF
Some aspects of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability, and its impact on regional and hemispheric scale climate, are reviewed. Observational analyses have documented distinct patterns of Atlantic variability with decadal (8-12 years) and multidecadal (30-80 years) time scales. Numerical models have succeeded in capturing some aspects of this observed variability, but much work remains to understand the mechanisms of the observed variability. The impacts of the variability — particularly on the multidecadal time scale — are striking, including modulation of African and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, summer climate over North America and Europe, and a potential influence on Atlantic hurricane activity. Some of the observed variability, particularly in recent decades, is likely influenced by changing radiative forcings, of both anthropogenic and natural origin. This poses an important challenge for the detection, attribution and prediction of climate change.
Schmittner, A, Eric D Galbraith, S W Hostetler, T F Pedersen, and Rong Zhang, 2007: Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction. Paleoceanography, 22, PA3207, DOI:10.1029/2006PA001384. Abstract
Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that explain how changes in deepwater subduction in the North Atlantic can cause large and synchronous variations of oxygen minimum zones throughout the Northern Hemisphere of the Indian and Pacific oceans, consistent with the paleoclimate records. Cold periods in the North Atlantic are associated with reduced nutrient delivery to the upper Indo-Pacific oceans, thereby decreasing productivity. Reduced export production diminishes subsurface respiration of organic matter leading to higher oxygen concentrations and less denitrification. This effect of reduced oxygen consumption dominates at low latitudes. At high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific, increased mixed layer depths and steepening of isopycnals improve ocean ventilation and oxygen supply to the subsurface. Atmospheric teleconnections through changes in wind-driven ocean circulation modify this basin-scale pattern regionally. These results suggest that changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation, similar to those projected by climate models to possibly occur in the centuries to come because of anthropogenic climate warming, can have large effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles even in remote areas.
While the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature has clearly warmed over the 20th century due in large part to increasing greenhouse gases, this warming has not been monotonic. The departures from steady warming on multidecadal timescales might be associated in part with radiative forcing, especially solar irradiance, volcanoes, and anthropogenic aerosols. It is also possible that internal oceanic variability explains a part of this variation. We report here on simulations with a climate model in which the Atlantic Ocean is constrained to produce multidecadal fluctuations similar to observations by redistributing heat within the Atlantic, with other oceans left free to adjust to these Atlantic perturbations. The model generates multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures similar in phase and magnitude to detrended observations. The results suggest that variability in the Atlantic is a viable explanation for a portion of the multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature record.
Zhang, Rong, 2007: Anticorrelated multidecadal variations between surface and subsurface tropical North Atlantic. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L12713, DOI:10.1029/2007GL030225. Abstract PDF
In this paper for the first time I show that the multidecadal variations of observed tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) are strongly anticorrelated with those of the observed TNA subsurface ocean temperature, with long-term trends removed. I further show that the anticorrelated change between the TNA surface and subsurface temperature is a distinctive signature of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, using water-hosing experiments with the GFDL state-of-art coupled climate model (CM2.1). External radiative forced simulations with the same model do not provide a significant relationship between the TNA surface and subsurface temperature variations. The observed detrended multidecadal TNA subsurface temperature anomaly may be taken as a proxy for the AMOC variability. Various mechanisms proposed for the multidecadal TNA SST variations, which are crucial for multidecadal variations of Atlantic hurricane activities, should take into account the observed anticorrelation between the TNA surface and subsurface temperature variations.
Zhang, Rong, and Geoffrey K Vallis, August 2007: The role of bottom vortex stretching on the path of the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current and on the Northern Recirculation Gyre. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(8), DOI:10.1175/JPO3102.1. Abstract
The mechanisms affecting the path of the depth-integrated North Atlantic western boundary current and the formation of the northern recirculation gyre are investigated using a hierarchy of models, namely, a robust diagnostic model, a prognostic model using a global 1° ocean general circulation model coupled to a two-dimensional atmospheric energy balance model with a hydrological cycle, a simple numerical barotropic model, and an analytic model. The results herein suggest that the path of this boundary current and the formation of the northern recirculation gyre are sensitive to both the magnitude of lateral viscosity and the strength of the deep western boundary current (DWBC). In particular, it is shown that bottom vortex stretching induced by a downslope DWBC near the south of the Grand Banks leads to the formation of a cyclonic northern recirulation gyre and keeps the path of the depth-integrated western boundary current downstream of Cape Hatteras separated from the North American coast. Both south of the Grand Banks and at the crossover region of the DWBC and Gulf Stream, the downslope DWBC induces strong bottom downwelling over the steep continental slope, and the magnitude of the bottom downwelling is locally stronger than surface Ekman pumping velocity, providing strong positive vorticity through bottom vortex stretching effects. The bottom vortex-stretching effect is also present in an extensive area in the North Atlantic, and the contribution to the North Atlantic subpolar and subtropical gyres is on the same order as the local surface wind stress curl. Analytic solutions show that the bottom vortex stretching is important near the western boundary only when the continental slope is wider than the Munk frictional layer scale.
In this paper, we found that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can contribute to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), especially the component of the PDO that is linearly independent of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), i.e. the North Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (NPMO), and the associated Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern. Using a hybrid version of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model, we show that the AMO provides a source of multidecadal variability to the North Pacific, and needs to be considered along with other forcings for North Pacific climate change. The lagged North Pacific response to the North Atlantic forcing is through atmospheric teleconnections and reinforced by oceanic dynamics and positive air-sea feedback over the North Pacific. The results indicate that a North Pacific regime shift, opposite to the 1976–77 shift, might occur now a decade after the switch of the observed AMO to a positive phase around 1995.
The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved.
Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments.
The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic.
Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).
Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005
The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.
Prominent multidecadal fluctuations of India summer rainfall, Sahel summer rainfall, and Atlantic Hurricane activity have been observed during the 20th century. Understanding their mechanism(s) will have enormous social and economic implications. We first use statistical analyses to show that these climate phenomena are coherently linked. Next, we use the GFDL CM2.1 climate model to show that the multidecadal variability in the Atlantic ocean can cause the observed multidecadal variations of India summer rainfall, Sahel summer rainfall and Atlantic Hurricane activity (as inferred from vertical wind shear changes). These results suggest that to interpret recent climate change we cannot ignore the important role of Atlantic multidecadal variability.
In this paper, it is shown that coherent large-scale low-frequency variabilities in the North Atlantic Ocean—that is, the variations of thermohaline circulation, deep western boundary current, northern recirculation gyre, and Gulf Stream path—are associated with high-latitude oceanic Great Salinity Anomaly events. In particular, a dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly (warming off the U.S. east coast and cooling south of Greenland) can be triggered by the Great Salinity Anomaly events several years in advance, thus providing a degree of long-term predictability to the system. Diagnosed phase relationships among an observed proxy for Great Salinity Anomaly events, the Labrador Sea sea surface temperature anomaly, and the North Atlantic Oscillation are also discussed.
This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accommodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical "virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.
In this study, a mechanism is demonstrated whereby a large reduction in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) can induce global-scale changes in the Tropics that are consistent with paleoevidence of the global synchronization of millennial-scale abrupt climate change. Using GFDL’s newly developed global coupled ocean–atmosphere model (CM2.0), the global response to a sustained addition of freshwater to the model’s North Atlantic is simulated. This freshwater forcing substantially weakens the Atlantic THC, resulting in a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic and Pacific, an El Niño–like pattern in the southeastern tropical Pacific, and weakened Indian and Asian summer monsoons through air–sea interactions.
Cessi, P, Kirk Bryan, and Rong Zhang, 2004: Global seiching of thermocline waters between the Atlantic and the Indian-Pacific Ocean Basins. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L04302, DOI:10.1029/2003GL019091. Abstract
Proxy climate data from the Greenland icecap and marine deposits in the Pacific indicate that warm conditions in the North Atlantic are linked to cool conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, and vice versa. Our ocean models show that the surface branch of the overturning circulation connecting the North Atlantic to the Equatorial Pacific adjusts by exchanging thermocline water between ocean basins in response to changes in deep water formation in the northern North Atlantic. Planetary ocean waves give rise to a global oceanic seiche, such that the volume of thermocline water decreases in the Pacific-Indian Ocean while increasing in the Atlantic Ocean. We conjecture that the remotely forced changes in the thermocline of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific may trigger El Niño events. These global seiches have been previously overlooked due to the difficulty of integrating high-resolution climate models for very long time-scales.
