Hodnebrog, Øivind, Gunnar Myhre, Caroline Jouan, Timothy Andrews, Piers M Forster, Hailing Jia, Norman G Loeb, Dirk Olivié, David J Paynter, Johannes Quaas, Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, and Michael Schulz, April 2024: Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance. Communications Earth and Environment, 5, 166, DOI:10.1038/s43247-024-01324-8. Abstract
The Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate anthropogenic contributions to the imbalance trend using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. We find that the effective radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has led to a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m−2 decade−1 strengthening of the 2001–2019 imbalance trend. The multi-model ensemble reproduces the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m−2 decade−1 but with 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid reductions of aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, such emission reductions may continue to strengthen Earth’s energy imbalance, on top of the greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade.
Nikumbh, Akshaya C., Pu Lin, David J Paynter, and Yi Ming, June 2024: Does increasing horizontal resolution improve the simulation of intense tropical rainfall in GFDL's AM4 model?Geophysical Research Letters, 51(12), DOI:10.1029/2023GL106708. Abstract
We examine tropical rainfall from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4 (GFDL AM4) at three horizontal resolutions of 100 km, 50 km, and 25 km. The model produces more intense rainfall at finer resolutions, but a large discrepancy still exists between the simulated and the observed frequency distribution. We use a theoretical precipitation scaling diagnostic to examine the frequency distribution of the simulated rainfall. The scaling accurately produces the frequency distribution at moderate-to-high intensity (≥10 mm day−1). Intense tropical rainfall at finer resolutions is produced primarily from the increased contribution of resolved precipitation and enhanced updrafts. The model becomes more sensitive to the grid-scale updrafts than local thermodynamics at high rain rates as the contribution from the resolved precipitation increases.
Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel, William J Merryfield, Matthew Toohey, Claudia Timmreck, Jean-Paul Vernier, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, Roberto Bilbao, Markus G Donat, Pablo Ortega, Jason N S Cole, Woo-Sung Lee, Thomas L Delworth, David J Paynter, Fanrong Zeng, and Liping Zhang, et al., in press: Decadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0111.1. October 2024. Abstract
The World Meteorological Organization’s Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate prediction issues operational forecasts annually as guidance for regional climate centers, climate outlook forums and national meteorological and hydrological services. The occurrence of a large volcanic eruption such as that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, however, would invalidate these forecasts and prompt producers to modify their predictions. To assist and prepare decadal prediction centers for this eventuality, the Volcanic Response activities under the World Climate Research Programme’s Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) and the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) organized a community exercise to respond to a hypothetical large eruption occurring in April 2022. As part of this exercise, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol forcing generator was used to provide stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical properties customized to the configurations of individual decadal prediction models. Participating centers then reran forecasts for 2022-2026 from their original initialization dates, and in most cases also from just before the eruption at the beginning of April 2022, according to two candidate response protocols. This article describes various aspects of this SPARC/DCPP Volcanic Response Readiness Exercise (VolRes-RE), including the hypothesized volcanic event, the modified forecasts under the two protocols from the eight contributing centers, the lessons learned during the coordination and execution of this exercise, and the recommendations to the decadal prediction community for the response to an actual eruption.
In a warming climate, greenhouse gases modulate thermal cooling to space from the surface and atmosphere, which is a fundamental feedback process that affects climate sensitivity. Recent studies have found that when relative humidity (RH) is constant with global warming, Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback would be dominated by surface cooling to space. Using a millennium-length coupled general circulation model and accurate line-by-line radiative transfer calculations, here we show that the atmospheric cooling to space accounts for 12%–50% of the feedback parameter from poles to tropics. A simple yet comprehensive model is proposed here for explaining the atmospheric feedback process. It is found that when RH is held constant, the atmospheric feedback stabilizes the climate because (a) water vapor spectral lines are weakened by the collision-broadening effect between water vapor and radiatively inert background gases, and (b) thermal emissions from other greenhouse gases increases due to enhanced Planck emission which is proportional to the surface warming. Each mechanism is responsible for half of the atmospheric feedback. We further elucidate that in hotter climates, the atmospheric feedback is more stabilizing because of (a) greater tropospheric opacity, and (b) more dramatic changes in air temperature with respect to transmission, owing to the pseudo-adiabatic expansion of air with surface warming. The sum of surface and atmospheric feedback, the clear-sky longwave feedback is accurately predicted by the simple model from the climate base state. Our study provides a theoretical way for assessing Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback, with important implications for Earth-like planets.
Feng, Jing, David J Paynter, Chenggong Wang, and Raymond Menzel, September 2023: How atmospheric humidity drives the outgoing longwave radiation–surface temperature relationship and inter-model spread. Environmental Research Letters, 18(10), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/acfb98. Abstract
The Earth's global radiation budget depends critically on the relationship between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and surface temperature (Ts). Using the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis dataset, we find that although OLR appears to be linearly dependent on Ts over a wide range, there are significant deviations from the linearity in the OLR–Ts relationship for regions warmer than 270 K Ts, which covers 89% of the surface of Earth. While the AMIP runs of CMIP6 models largely capture the overall OLR–Ts relationship, considerable discrepancies are found in clear-sky OLR at given Ts ranges. In this study, we investigate physical mechanisms that control the clear-sky OLR–Ts relationship seen in reanalysis and CMIP6 models by using accurate radiative transfer calculations. Our study identifies three key mechanisms to explain both the linearity and departure from linearity of the clear-sky OLR–Ts relationship. The first is a surface contribution, controlled by the thermal emission of the surface and the infrared opacity of the atmosphere, accounting for 60% of the observed clear-sky OLR–Ts linear slope. The second is changes in atmospheric emission induced by a foreign pressure effect on water vapor and other greenhouse gases, which accounts for 30% of the linear slope in a clear-sky condition. The third is changes in atmospheric emission induced by variations in relative humidity (RH), particularly in the mid-troposphere (250 to 750 hPa), which determines the non-linearity in the clear-sky OLR–Ts relationship and adds to the remaining 10% of the slope. The inter-model spread in mid-tropospheric RH explains a large fraction of the differences in clear-sky OLR across CMIP6 models at given surface temperatures. Furthermore, the three key mechanisms outlined here apply to the OLR–Ts relationship in all-sky conditions: clouds disguise the surface contribution but increase the atmospheric contribution, retaining a similar linear slope to the clear-sky condition while amplifying the non-linear curvature.
Govardhan, Gaurav, David J Paynter, and V Ramaswamy, December 2023: Effective radiative forcing of the internally mixed sulfate and black carbon aerosol in the GFDL AM4 model: The role played by other aerosol species. JGR Atmospheres, 128(23), DOI:10.1029/2023JD038481. Abstract
We compute the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of the internally mixed sulfate-black carbon (SBC) aerosol species in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Atmospheric Model version 4 (AM4) model using five different formulations. The formulations differ in how they account for the presence of other aerosol species. The global mean ERF of SBC in the GFDL AM4 model ranges from −0.51 ± 0.1 to −1.06 ± 0.1 W m−2. The three most realistic configurations of the five, in which the emissions of other aerosol species vary between 1850 and 2010 states, depict a tighter distribution of ERF (−0.51, −0.55, and −0.57 ± 0.1). The two outlier configurations completely exclude one or more other aerosol species, which is slightly unrealistic but included for completeness. The former three configurations, however, result in substantially different ERFs over the regional hot spots of aerosols, e.g., over the land-mass of East China; the choice of the emission conditions for organic carbon (i.e., present-day or preindustrial) affects the ERF of SBC by ∼37%. The component of ERF related to aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) gets principally affected by the presence of other aerosol species. The higher the emissions of other aerosol species, the lesser is the ERF of SBC associated with ACI. This finding suggests that for ERF estimates, the choice of the emission level/concentrations of the other aerosol species significantly affects the estimates of SBC, especially over the aerosol hot spots.
Satellite observations show a near-zero trend in the top-of-atmosphere global-mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE), suggesting that clouds did not further cool nor heat the planet over the last two decades. The causes of this observed trend are unknown and can range from effective radiative forcing (ERF) to cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability. We find that the near-zero NetCRE trend is a result of a significant negative trend in the longwave (LW) CRE and a significant positive trend in the shortwave (SW) CRE, cooling and heating the climate system, respectively. We find that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that internal variability can explain the observed LW and SW CRE trends. Instead, the majority of the observed LWCRE trend arises from cloud masking wherein increases in greenhouse gases reduce OLR in all-sky conditions less than in clear-sky conditions. In SWCRE, rapid cloud adjustments to greenhouse gases, aerosols, and natural forcing agents (ERF) explain a majority of the observed trend. Over the northeast Pacific, we show that ERF, hitherto an ignored factor, contributes as much as cloud feedbacks to the observed SWCRE trend. Large contributions from ERF and cloud masking to the global-mean LW and SW CRE trends are supplemented by negative LW and positive SW cloud feedback trends, which are detectable at 80%–95% confidence depending on the observational uncertainty assumed. The large global-mean LW and SW cloud feedbacks cancel, leaving a small net cloud feedback that is unconstrained in sign, implying that clouds could amplify or dampen global warming.
Global greenhouse gas forcing and feedbacks are the primary causes of climate change but have limited direct observations. Here we show that continuous, stable, global, hyperspectral infrared satellite measurements (2003–2021) display decreases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the CO2, CH4, and N2O absorption bands and increases in OLR in the window band and H2O absorption bands. By conducting global line-by-line radiative transfer simulations with 2003–2021 meteorological conditions, we show that increases in CO2, CH4, and N2O concentrations caused an instantaneous radiative forcing and stratospheric cooling adjustment that decreased OLR. The climate response, comprising surface and atmospheric feedbacks to radiative forcings and unforced variability, increased OLR. The spectral trends predicted by our climate change experiments using our general circulation model identify three bedrock principles of the physics of climate change in the satellite record: an increasing greenhouse effect, stratospheric cooling, and surface-tropospheric warming.
Schmidt, Gavin A., Timothy Andrews, Susanne E Bauer, Paul J Durack, Norman G Loeb, V Ramaswamy, Nathan P Arnold, Michael Bosilovich, Jason N S Cole, Larry W Horowitz, Gregory C Johnson, John M Lyman, Brian Medeiros, Takuro Michibata, Dirk Olonscheck, David J Paynter, Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Michael Schulz, Daisuke Takasuka, Vijay Tallapragada, Patrick C Taylor, and Tilo Ziehn, July 2023: CERESMIP: A climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance. Frontiers in Climate, 5, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161. Abstract
The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.
Wilcox, Laura J., Robert J Allen, Bjørn H Samset, Massimo Bollasina, Paul T Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, and David J Paynter, et al., August 2023: The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP). Geoscientific Model Development, 16(15), DOI:10.5194/gmd-16-4451-20234451-4479. Abstract
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales.
Historical precipitation and temperature trends and variations over global land regions are compared with simulations of two climate models focusing on grid points with substantial observational coverage from the early twentieth century. Potential mechanisms for the differences between modeled and observed trends are investigated using subsets of historical forcings, including ones using only anthropogenic greenhouse gases or aerosols, and simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution. For century-scale (1915–2014) precipitation trends, underestimated increasing or unrealistic decreasing trends are found in the models over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. The temporal evolution of key discrepancies between the observations and simulations indicates that 1) for averages over 15°–45°N, while there is not a significant trend in observations, both models simulate reduced precipitation from 1940 to 2014, and 2) for 45°–80°N observations suggest sizable precipitation increases while models do not show a significant increase, particularly during ∼1950–80. The timing of differences between models and observations suggests a key role for aerosols in these dry trend biases over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, 3) for 15°S–15°N the observed multidecadal decrease over tropical west Africa (1950–80) is only roughly captured by simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature; additionally, 4) in the all-forcing runs, the model with higher global climate sensitivity simulates increasing trends of temperature and precipitation over lands north of 45°N that are significantly stronger than the lower-sensitivity model and more consistent with the observed increases. Thus, underestimated greenhouse gas–induced warming—particularly in the lower sensitivity model—may be another important factor, besides aerosols, contributing to the modeled biases in precipitation trends.
Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) contribute to a large fraction of fine aerosols globally, impacting air quality and climate. The formation of biogenic SOA depends on not only emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) but also anthropogenic pollutants including primary organic aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). However, the anthropogenic impact on biogenic SOA production (AIBS) remains unclear. Here we use the decadal trend and variability in observed organic aerosol (OA) in the southeast US, combined with a global chemistry–climate model, to better constrain AIBS. We show that the reduction in SO2 emissions can only explain 40 % of the decreasing decadal trend of OA in this region, constrained by the low summertime month-to-month variability in surface OA. We hypothesize that the rest of the OA decreasing trend is largely due to a reduction in NOx emissions. By implementing a scheme for monoterpene SOA with enhanced sensitivity to NOx, our model can reproduce the decadal trend and variability in OA in this region. Extending to a centennial scale, our model shows that global SOA production increases by 36 % despite BVOC reductions from the preindustrial period to the present day, largely amplified by AIBS. Our work suggests a strong coupling between anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in biogenic SOA production that is missing from current climate models.
Parameterizing incident solar radiation over complex topography regions in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a challenging task. In ESMs, downward solar radiative fluxes at the surface are typically computed using plane-parallel radiative transfer schemes, which do not explicitly account for the effects of a three-dimensional topography, such as shading and reflections. To improve the representation of these processes, we introduce and test a parameterization of radiation–topography interactions tailored to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ESM land model. The approach presented here builds on an existing correction scheme for direct, diffuse, and reflected solar irradiance terms over three-dimensional terrain. Here we combine this correction with a novel hierarchical multivariate clustering algorithm that explicitly describes the spatially varying downward irradiance over mountainous terrain. Based on a high-resolution digital elevation model, this combined method first defines a set of sub-grid land units (“tiles”) by clustering together sites characterized by similar terrain–radiation interactions (e.g., areas with similar slope orientation, terrain, and sky view factors). Then, based on terrain parameters characteristic for each tile, correction terms are computed to account for the effects of local 3D topography on shortwave radiation over each land unit. We develop and test this procedure based on a set of Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulations approximating the true radiative transfer process over three-dimensional topography. Domains located in three distinct geographic regions (Alps, Andes, and Himalaya) are included in this study to allow for independent testing of the methodology over surfaces with differing topographic features. We find that accounting for the sub-grid spatial variability of solar irradiance originating from interactions with complex topography is important as these effects led to significant local differences with respect to the plane-parallel case, as well as with respect to grid-cell-scale average topographic corrections. We further quantify the importance of the topographic correction for a varying number of terrain clusters and for different radiation terms (direct, diffuse, and reflected radiative fluxes) in order to inform the application of this methodology in different ESMs with varying sub-grid tile structure. We find that even a limited number of sub-grid units such as 10 can lead to recovering more than 60 % of the spatial variability of solar irradiance over a mountainous area.
Andrews, Timothy, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Jonathan M Gregory, Yue Dong, Kyle Armour, David J Paynter, and Pu Lin, et al., September 2022: On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback. JGR Atmospheres, 127(18), DOI:10.1029/2022JD036675. Abstract
We investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) change in 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea-ice over the historical record from 1871 to near-present. We find that over 1871–1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long-term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere-ocean GCM abrupt-4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980, however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with—and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than—that expected for long-term CO2 increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II SST data set used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a “pattern effect” (defined as the difference between historical and long-term CO2 feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m−2 K−1 for the time-period 1871–2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m−2 K−1 when forced with AMIP II SSTs. Assessed changes in the Earth's historical energy budget agree with the AGCM feedback estimates. Furthermore satellite observations of changes in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 suggest that the pattern effect was particularly strong over recent decades but may be waning post 2014.
The Mediterranean is a projected hot spot for climate change, with significant warming and rainfall reductions. We use climate model ensembles to explore whether these Mediterranean rainfall declines could be reversed in response to greenhouse gas reductions. While the summer Mediterranean rainfall decline is reversed, winter rainfall continues to decline. The continued decline results from prolonged weakening of Atlantic Ocean poleward heat transport that combines with greenhouse gas reductions to cool the subpolar North Atlantic, inducing atmospheric circulation changes that favor continued Mediterranean drying. This is a potential “surprise” in the climate system, whereby changes in one component (Atlantic Ocean circulation) alter how another component (Mediterranean rainfall) responds to greenhouse gas reductions. Such surprises could complicate climate change mitigation efforts.
Dong, Yue, Kyle Armour, Cristian Proistosescu, Timothy Andrews, David S Battisti, Piers M Forster, David J Paynter, Christopher J Smith, and Hideo Shiogama, December 2021: Biased estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response derived from historical CMIP6 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(24), DOI:10.1029/2021GL095778. Abstract
This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.
Freidenreich, Stuart, David J Paynter, Pu Lin, V Ramaswamy, Alexandra L Jones, Daniel Feldman, and William D Collins, June 2021: An investigation into biases in instantaneous aerosol radiative effects calculated by shortwave parameterizations in two Earth system models. JGR Atmospheres, 126(11), DOI:10.1029/2019JD032323. Abstract
Because the forcings to which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models were subjected were poorly quantified, recent efforts from the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) have focused on developing and testing models with exacting benchmarks. Here, we focus on aerosol forcing to understand if for a given distribution of aerosols, participating models are producing a radiometrically-accurate forcing. We apply the RFMIP experimental protocol for assessing flux biases in aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE) on two participating models, GFDL AM4 and CESM 1.2.2. The latter model contains the RRTMG radiation code which is widely used among CMIP6 GCM's. We conduct a series of calculations that test different potential sources of error in these models relative to line-by-line benchmarks. We find two primary sources of error: two-stream solution methods and the techniques to resolve spectral dependencies of absorption and scattering across the solar spectrum. The former is the dominant source of error for both models but the latter is more significant as a contributing factor for CESM 1.2.2. Either source of error can be addressed in future model development, and these results both demonstrate how the RFMIP protocol can help determine the origins of parameterized errors relative to their equivalent benchmark calculations for participating models, as well as highlight a viable path towards a more rigorous quantification and control of forcings for future CMIP exercises.
Clear-sky CO2 forcing is known to vary significantly over the globe, but the state dependence that controls this is not well understood. Here we extend the formalism of Wilson and Gea-Banacloche to obtain a quantitatively accurate analytical model for spatially varying instantaneous CO2 forcing, which depends only on surface temperature T s, stratospheric temperature, and column relative humidity (RH). This model shows that CO2 forcing can be considered a swap of surface emission for stratospheric emission, and thus depends primarily on surface–stratosphere temperature contrast. The strong meridional gradient in CO2 forcing is thus largely due to the strong meridional gradient in T s. In the tropics and midlatitudes, however, the presence of H2O modulates the forcing by replacing surface emission with RH-dependent atmospheric emission. This substantially reduces the forcing in the tropics, introduces forcing variations due to spatially varying RH, and sets an upper limit (with respect to T s variations) on CO2 forcing that is reached in the present-day tropics. In addition, we extend our analytical model to the instantaneous tropopause forcing, and find that this forcing depends on T s only, with no dependence on stratospheric temperature. We also analyze the τ = 1 approximation for the emission level and derive an exact formula for the emission level, which yields values closer to τ = 1/2 than to τ = 1.
Li, Longlei, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga V Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David J Paynter, and David R. Thompson, March 2021: Quantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertainty. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(5), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-3973-20213973-4005. Abstract
The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W m−2. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W m−2 at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.
Hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an alternative energy carrier to reduce the carbon footprint and associated radiative forcing of the current energy system. Here, we describe the representation of H2 in the GFDL-AM4.1 model including updated emission inventories and improved representation of H2 soil removal, the dominant sink of H2. The model best captures the overall distribution of surface H2, including regional contrasts between climate zones, when vd(H2) is modulated by soil moisture, temperature, and soil carbon content. We estimate that the soil removal of H2 increases with warming (2–4% per K), with large uncertainties stemming from different regional response of soil moisture and soil carbon. We estimate that H2 causes an indirect radiative forcing of 0.84 mW m−2/(Tg(H2)yr−1) or 0.13 mW m−2 ppbv−1, primarily due to increasing CH4 lifetime and stratospheric water vapor production.
The observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Using climate model simulations, we show that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that this trend can be explained by internal variability. Instead, TEEI is achieved only upon accounting for the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing and the associated climate response. TEEI is driven by a large decrease in reflected solar radiation and a small increase in emitted infrared radiation. This is because recent changes in forcing and feedbacks are additive in the solar spectrum, while being nearly offset by each other in the infrared. We conclude that the satellite record provides clear evidence of a human-influenced climate system.
Zhang, Lixia, Laura J Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, and David J Paynter, et al., May 2021: Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(10), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-7499-20217499-7514. Abstract
Air pollution is a major issue in China and one of the largest threats to public health. We investigated future changes in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with haze events in the Beijing region and the severity of haze events during these circulation conditions from 2015 to 2049 under two different aerosol scenarios: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR) and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE). In both cases greenhouse gas emissions follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 with CLE aerosol the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events increases due to a weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon via increased sea level pressure over the North Pacific. The rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions in MTFR further increases the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events, due to further increases in the sea level pressure over the North Pacific and a reduction in the intensity of the Siberian high. Even with the aggressive aerosol reductions in MTFR periods of poor visibility, represented by above-normal aerosol optical depth (AOD), still occur in conjunction with haze-favorable atmospheric circulation. However, the winter mean intensity of poor visibility decreases in MTFR, so that haze events are less dangerous in this scenario by 2050 compared to CLE and relative to the current baseline. This study reveals the competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to pollutant source and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. A compound consideration of these two impacts should be taken in future policy making.
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL ‐ the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0o (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1o to 0.25o. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM 4 models, but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time‐mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM 4 models.
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO2, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.
Frölicher, Thomas L., M T Aschwanden, Nicolas Gruber, Samuel Jaccard, John P Dunne, and David J Paynter, August 2020: Contrasting upper and deep ocean oxygen response to protracted global warming. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34(8), DOI:10.1029/2020GB006601. Abstract
It is well established that the ocean is currently losing dissolved oxygen (O2) in response to ocean warming, but the long‐term, equilibrium response of O2 to a warmer climate is neither well quantified nor understood. Here, we use idealized multi‐millennial global warming simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model to show that the equilibrium response in ocean O2 differs fundamentally from the ongoing transient response. After physical equilibration of the model (>4000 yr) under a two‐times preindustrial CO2 scenario, the deep ocean is better ventilated and oxygenated compared to preindustrial conditions, even though the deep ocean is substantially warmer. The recovery and overshoot of deep convection in the Weddell Sea and especially the Ross Sea after ~720 yr causes a strong increase in deep ocean O2 that overcompensates the solubility‐driven decrease in O2. In contrast, O2 in most of the upper tropical ocean is substantially depleted owing to the warming‐induced O2 decrease dominating over changes in ventilation and biology. Our results emphasize the millennial‐scale impact of global warming on marine life, with some impacts emerging many centuries or even millennia after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized.
We describe the baseline model configuration and simulation characteristics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmosphere Model version 4.1 (AM4.1), which builds on developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.0 development effort, which focused on physical and aerosol interactions and which is used as the atmospheric component of CM4.0, AM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. Key features of this model include doubled horizontal resolution of the atmosphere (~200 to ~100 km) with revised dynamics and physics from GFDL's previous‐generation AM3 atmospheric chemistry‐climate model. AM4.1 features improved representation of atmospheric chemical composition, including aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, key land‐atmosphere interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere cycling of reactive nitrogen. AM4.1 provides vast improvements in fidelity over AM3, captures most of AM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on AM4.0 in the representation of aerosols over the Southern Ocean, India, and China—even with its interactive chemistry representation—and in its manifestation of sudden stratospheric warmings in the coldest months. Distributions of reactive nitrogen and sulfur species, carbon monoxide, and ozone are all substantially improved over AM3. Fidelity concerns include degradation of upper atmosphere equatorial winds and of aerosols in some regions.
Kuai, Le, K W Bowman, H Worden, K Miyazaki, S Kulawik, A J Conley, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Fabien Paulot, and David J Paynter, et al., January 2020: Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20(1), DOI:10.5194/acp-20-281-2020. Abstract
The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting its evolution.
To that end, we construct observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm−2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models flux biases over 50 mWm−2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm−2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is −132.9 ± 98 mWm−2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque thereby reducing sensitivity of TOA flux to ozone and potentially an underestimate of ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA OLR difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.
Loeb, Norman G., Hailan Wang, Richard P Allan, Timothy Andrews, Kyle Armour, Jason N S Cole, J-L Dufresne, Piers M Forster, Andrew Gettelman, Huan Guo, T Mauritsen, Yi Ming, and David J Paynter, et al., March 2020: New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(5), DOI:10.1029/2019GL086705. Abstract
We compare top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so‐called global warming “hiatus” of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low‐cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low‐cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a “pattern effect” that may be too weak compared to observations.
Recent laboratory and field studies point to an increase of sea salt aerosol (SSA) emissions with temperature, suggesting that SSA may lower climate sensitivity. We assess the impact of a strong (4.2 % K‐1) and weak (0.7% K‐1) temperature response of SSA emissions on the climate sensitivity of the coupled climate model CM4. We find that the stronger temperature dependence improves the simulation of marine aerosol optical depth sensitivity to temperature and lowers CM4 Transient Climate Response (‐0.12K) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (‐0.5K). At CO2 doubling, the higher SSA emission sensitivity causes a negative radiative feedback (‐0.125 W m‐2 K‐1), which can only be partly explained by changes in the radiative effect of SSA (‐0.08 W m‐2 K‐1). Stronger radiative feedbacks are dominated by more negative low‐level clouds feedbacks in the Northern Hemisphere, which are partly offset by more positive feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere associated with a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Pincus, Robert, Stefan A Buehler, Manfred Brath, Cyril Crevoisier, Omar Jamil, K Franklin Evans, James Manners, Raymond Menzel, Eli J Mlawer, David J Paynter, Rick L Pernak, and Yoann Tellier, December 2020: Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. JGR Atmospheres, 125(23), DOI:10.1029/2020JD033483. Abstract
Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line-by-line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear-sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a reanalysis of present-day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from preindustrial times to the present day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m−2. Six contributing line-by-line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m−2 while even recently developed parameterizations have typical errors 4 or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line-by-line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line-by-line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations, and the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature changes estimated by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest nonlinearity.
Rugenstein, Maria A., Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Jonathan M Gregory, Timothy Andrews, T Mauritsen, Chao Li, Thomas L Frölicher, and David J Paynter, et al., February 2020: Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(4), DOI:10.1029/2019GL083898. Abstract
The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial‐length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid‐latitudes. Time‐dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.
Skeie, Ragnhild B., Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Philip Cameron-Smith, Makoto Deushi, Michaela I Hegglin, Larry W Horowitz, Ryan J Kramer, Martine Michou, Michael J Mills, Dirk Olivié, Fiona M O'Connor, and David J Paynter, et al., August 2020: Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 32, DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0. Abstract
Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.
GFDL's new CM4.0 climate model has high transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities near the middle of the upper half of CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models have been criticized for excessive sensitivity based on observations of present‐day warming and heat uptake and estimates of radiative forcing. An ensemble of historical simulations with CM4.0 produces warming and heat uptake that are consistent with these observations under forcing that is at the middle of the assessed distribution. Energy budget‐based methods for estimating sensitivities based on these quantities underestimate CM4.0's sensitivities when applied to its historical simulations. However, we argue using a simple attribution procedure that CM4.0's warming evolution indicates excessive transient sensitivity to greenhouse gases. This excessive sensitivity is offset prior to recent decades by excessive response to aerosol and land use changes.
We describe GFDL's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the pre‐industrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasi‐periodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
The clear sky greenhouse effect (G) is defined as the trapping of infrared radiation by the atmosphere in the absence of clouds. The magnitude and variability of G is an important element in the understanding of Earth’s energy balance; yet the quantification of the governing factors of G is poor. The global mean G averaged over 2000 to 2016 is 130‐133 Wm−2 across datasets. We use satellite observations from CERES EBAF to calculate the monthly anomalies in the clear sky greenhouse effect (∆G). We quantify the contributions to ∆G due to changes in surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and water vapor by performing partial radiation perturbation experiments using ERA‐Interim and GFDL AM4 climatological data. Water vapor in the middle troposphere and upper troposphere is found to contribute equally to the global mean and tropical mean ∆G. Holding relative humidity (RH) fixed in the radiative transfer calculations captures the temporal variability of global mean ∆G while variations in RH control the regional ∆G signal. The variations in RH are found to help generate the clear sky super greenhouse effect (SGE). 36% of Earth’s area exhibits SGE and this disproportionately contributes to 70% of the globally averaged magnitude of ∆G. In the global mean, G’s sensitivity to surface temperature is 3.1‐4.0 Wm−2K−1 and the clear sky longwave feedback parameter is 1.5‐2.0 Wm−2K−1. CERES observations lie at the more sensitive ends of these ranges and the spread arises from its cloud removal treatment, suggesting that it is difficult to constrain clear sky feedbacks
Rugenstein, Maria A., Jonah Bloch-Johnson, A Abe-Ouchi, Timothy Andrews, U Beyerle, Long Cao, T Chadha, Gokhan Danabasoglu, J-L Dufresne, Lei Duan, M-A Foujols, Thomas L Frölicher, O Geoffroy, Jonathan M Gregory, Reto Knutti, Chao Li, A Marzocchi, T Mauritsen, M Menary, Elizabeth Moyer, Larissa Nazarenko, and David J Paynter, et al., December 2019: LongRunMIP – motivation and design for a large collection of millennial-length AO-GCM simulations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(12), DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0068.1. Abstract
LongRunMIP is the first collection of millennial-length simulations of complex coupled climate models and enables investigations of how these models equilibrate in response to radiative perturbations.
We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1000+ year) simulations of complex coupled climate models with a representation of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface, and their interactions. Standard model simulations are generally only a few hundred years long. However, modeling the long-term equilibration in response to radiative forcing perturbation is important for understanding many climate phenomena, such as the evolution of ocean circulation, time-and temperature-dependent feedbacks, and the differentiation of forced signal and internal variability. The aim of LongRunMIP is to facilitate research into these questions by serving as an archive for simulations that capture as much of this equilibration as possible. The only requirement to participate in LongRunMIP is to contribute a simulation with elevated, constant CO2 forcing that lasts at least 1000 years. LongRunMIP is a MIP of opportunity in that the simulations were mostly performed prior to the conception of the archive without an agreed-upon set of experiments. For most models, the archive contains a preindustrial control simulation and simulations with an idealized (typically abrupt) CO2 forcing. We collect 2D surface and top-of-atmosphere fields, and 3D ocean temperature and salinity fields. Here, we document the collection of simulations and discuss initial results, including the evolution of surface and deep ocean temperature and cloud radiative effects. As of summer 2019, the collection includes 50 simulations of 15 models by 10 modeling centers. The data of LongRunMIP are publicly available. We encourage submission of more simulations in the future.
Scannell, C, B Booth, Nick Dunstone, D P Rowell, D J Bernie, M Kasoar, A Voulgarakis, Laura J Wilcox, J C Acosta Navarro, Øyvind Seland, and David J Paynter, December 2019: The Influence of remote aerosol forcing from industrialised economies on the future evolution of East and West African rainfall. Journal of Climate, 32(23), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0716.1. Abstract
Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near term (10-40 year) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored.
Whilst existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelope the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts results in northward shifts of the tropical rain-bands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10-20 year, time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the Short Rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties.
This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5-10 years would have a value in providing near term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders.
Explosive volcanic eruptions have large climate impacts, and can serve as observable tests of the climatic response to radiative forcing. Using a high resolution climate model, we contrast the climate responses to Pinatubo, with symmetric forcing, and those to Santa Maria and Agung, which had meridionally asymmetric forcing. Although Pinatubo had larger global‐mean forcing, asymmetric forcing strongly shifts the latitude of tropical rainfall features, leading to larger local precipitation/TC changes. For example, North Atlantic TC activity over is enhanced/reduced by SH‐forcing (Agung)/NH‐forcing (Santa Maria), but changes little in response to the Pinatubo forcing. Moreover, the transient climate sensitivity estimated from the response to Santa Maria is 20% larger than that from Pinatubo or Agung. This spread in climatic impacts of volcanoes needs to be considered when evaluating the role of volcanoes in global and regional climate, and serves to contextualize the well‐observed response to Pinatubo.
Andrews, Timothy, Jonathan M Gregory, David J Paynter, and Levi G Silvers, et al., August 2018: Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(16), DOI:10.1029/2018GL078887. Abstract
Eight atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with observed historical (1871–2010) monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice variations using the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II data set. The AGCMs therefore have a similar temperature pattern and trend to that of observed historical climate change. The AGCMs simulate a spread in climate feedback similar to that seen in coupled simulations of the response to CO2 quadrupling. However, the feedbacks are robustly more stabilizing and the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) smaller. This is due to a pattern effect, whereby the pattern of observed historical sea surface temperature change gives rise to more negative cloud and longwave clear‐sky feedbacks. Assuming the patterns of long‐term temperature change simulated by models, and the radiative response to them, are credible; this implies that existing constraints on EffCS from historical energy budget variations give values that are too low and overly constrained, particularly at the upper end. For example, the pattern effect increases the long‐term Otto et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836) EffCS median and 5–95% confidence interval from 1.9 K (0.9–5.0 K) to 3.2 K (1.5–8.1 K).
It is clear that the most effective way to limit global temperature rise and associated impacts is to reduce human emissions of greenhouse gases, including methane. However, quantification of the climate benefits of mitigation options are complicated by the contrast in the timescales at which short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane, persist in the atmosphere as compared to carbon dioxide. Whereas simple metrics fail to capture the differential impacts across all timescales, sophisticated climate models that can address these temporal dynamics are often inaccessible, time-intensive, and require special infrastructure. Reduced-complexity models offer an ideal compromise in that they provide quick, reliable insights into the benefits across types of climate pollutants using basic knowledge and limited computational infrastructure. In this paper, we build on previous evaluations of the freely-available and easy-to-run reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC by confirming its ability to reproduce temperature responses to historical methane emissions. By comparing MAGICC model results to those from the reference GFDL CM3 coupled global chemistry-climate model, we build confidence in using MAGICC for purposes of understanding the climate implications of methane mitigation. MAGICC can easily and rapidly provide robust data on climate responses to changes in methane emissions.
Palter, J B., Thomas L Frölicher, David J Paynter, and Jasmin G John, June 2018: Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), DOI:10.5194/esd-9-817-2018. Abstract
The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal – or net negative emissions – might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.
We present observation and model-based estimates of the changes in the direct shortwave effect of aerosols under clear-sky (SDRECS) from 2001 to 2015. Observation-based estimates are obtained from changes in the outgoing shortwave clear-sky radiation (Rsutcs) measured by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), accounting for the effect of variability in surface albedo, water vapor, and ozone. We find increases in SDRECS (i.e., less radiation scattered to space by aerosols) over Western Europe (0.7–1 W m−2 dec−1) and the Eastern US (0.9–1.8 W m−2 dec−1), decreases over India (−0.5– −1.9 W m−2 dec−1) and no significant change over Eastern China. Comparisons with the GFDL chemistry climate model AM3, driven by CMIP6 historical emissions, show that changes in SDRECS over Western Europe and the Eastern US are well captured, which largely reflects the mature understanding of the sulfate budget in these regions. In contrast, the model overestimates the trends in SDRECS over India and Eastern China. Over China, this bias can be partly attributed to the decline of SO2 emissions after 2007, which is not captured by the CMIP6 emissions. In both India and Eastern China, we find much larger contributions of nitrate and black carbon to changes in SDRECS than in the US and Europe, which highlights the need to better constrain their precursors and chemistry. Globally, our model shows that changes in the all-sky aerosol direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 (+0.03 W m−2) are dominated by black carbon (+0.12 W m−2) with significant offsets from nitrate (−0.03 W m−2) and sulfate (−0.03 W m−2). Changes in the sulfate (+7 %) and nitrate (+60 %) all-sky direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 are only weakly related to changes in the emissions of their precursors (−12.5 % and 19 % for SO2 and NH3, respectively), due mostly to chemical non linearities.
Paynter, David J., Thomas L Frölicher, Larry W Horowitz, and Levi G Silvers, February 2018: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained from Multi-Millennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(4), DOI:10.1002/2017JD027885. Abstract
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multi-millenial simulations of two GFDL general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are ~1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (−α) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51-350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in −α differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω500) and estimated inversion strength (EIS) that the GCMs experience during the progression towards the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of −α, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed SST pattern may be of equal importance.
Silvers, Levi G., David J Paynter, and Ming Zhao, January 2018: The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(1), DOI:10.1002/2017GL075583. Abstract
Low-level clouds are shown to be the conduit between the observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and large decadal fluctuations of the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative imbalance. The influence of low-level clouds on the climate feedback is shown for global mean time series as well as particular geographic regions. The changes of clouds are found to be important for a mid-century period of high sensitivity and a late century period of low sensitivity. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of amip-piForcing simulations using three atmospheric general circulation models (AM2.1, AM3, and AM4.0). All three models confirm the importance of the relationship between the global climate sensitivity and the eastern Pacific trends of SST and low-level clouds. However, this work argues that the variability of the climate feedback parameter is not driven by stratocumulus dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.
In this two-part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part I, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode – with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice distribution – is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part II, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.
In Part II of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part I. Part II provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.
A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally-averaged and spatially-resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol Instantaneous Radiative Effect (IRE). A proof-of-concept is demonstrated with the GFDL AM4 and CESM 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models’ aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited (~1 W/m2), and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.
This paper investigates changes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in response to carbon dioxide increase and surface warming separately in an atmospheric general circulation model, finding that both effects lead to a warmer tropical tropopause. Surface warming also results in an upward shift of the tropopause. A detailed heat budget analysis is performed to quantify the contributions from different radiative and dynamic processes to changes in the TTL temperature. When carbon dioxide increases with fixed surface temperature, a warmer TTL mainly results from the direct radiative effect of carbon dioxide increase. With surface warming, the largest contribution to the TTL warming comes from the radiative effect of the warmer troposphere, which is partly canceled by the radiative effect of the moistening at the TTL. Strengthening of the stratospheric circulation following surface warming cools the lower stratosphere dynamically and radiatively via changes in ozone. These two effects are of comparable magnitudes. This circulation change is the main cause of temperature changes near 63 hPa but is weak near 100 hPa. Contributions from changes in convection and clouds are also quantified. These results illustrate the heat budget analysis as a useful tool to disentangle the radiative–dynamical–chemical–convective coupling at the TTL and to facilitate an understanding of intermodel difference.
We contrast the responses to ozone depletion in two climate models: CAM3 and GFDL AM3. Although both models are forced with identical ozone concentration changes, the stratospheric cooling simulated in CAM3 is 30% stronger than in AM3 in annual mean, and twice as strong in December. We find that this difference originates from the dynamical response to ozone depletion, and its strength can be linked to the timing of the climatological springtime polar vortex breakdown. This mechanism is further supported by a variant of the AM3 simulation in which the Southern stratospheric zonal wind climatology is nudged to be CAM3-like. Given that the delayed breakdown of the Southern polar vortex is a common bias among many climate models, previous model-based assessments of the forced responses to ozone depletion may have been somewhat overestimated.
Paulot, Fabien, David J Paynter, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, S Whitburn, M Van Damme, L Clarisse, P-F Coheur, and Larry W Horowitz, August 2017: Gas-aerosol partitioning of ammonia in biomass burning plumes: implications for the interpretation of spaceborne observations of ammonia and the radiative forcing of ammonium nitrate. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(15), DOI:10.1002/2017GL074215. Abstract
Satellite–derived enhancement ratios of NH3 relative to CO column burden ( math formula) in fires over Alaska, the Amazon, and South Equatorial Africa are 35, 45, and 70% lower than the corresponding ratio of their emissions factors ( math formula) from biomass burning derived from in-situ observations. Simulations performed using the GFDL AM3 global chemistry–climate model show that these regional differences may not entirely stem from an overestimate of NH3 emissions but rather from changes in the gas-aerosol partitioning of NH3 to NH math formula. Differences between math formula and math formula are largest in regions where EFNOx/NH3 is high, consistent with the production of NH4NO3. Biomass burning is estimated to contribute 13–24% of the global burden and direct radiative effect (DRE) of NH4NO3(-15 – -28 mWm−2), despite accounting for less than 6% of the global source of NH3. Production of NH4NO3 is largely concentrated over the Amazon and South Equatorial Africa, where its DRE can reach -1.9Wm−2 during the biomass burning season.
East Asia has some of the largest concentrations of absorbing aerosols globally, and these, along with the region’s scattering aerosols, have both reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface regionally (“solar dimming”) and increased shortwave absorption within the atmosphere, particularly during the peak months of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). This study analyzes how atmospheric absorption and surface solar dimming compete in driving the response of regional summertime climate to anthropogenic aerosols, which dominates, and why—issues of particular importance for predicting how East Asian climate will respond to projected changes in absorbing and scattering aerosol emissions in the future. These questions are probed in a state-of-the-art general circulation model using a combination of realistic and novel idealized aerosol perturbations that allow analysis of the relative influence of absorbing aerosols’ atmospheric and surface-driven impacts on regional circulation and climate. Results show that even purely absorption-driven dimming decreases EASM precipitation by cooling the land surface, counteracting climatological land-sea contrast and reducing ascending atmospheric motion and on-shore winds, despite the associated positive top-of-atmosphere regional radiative forcing. Absorption-driven atmospheric heating does partially offset the precipitation and surface evaporation reduction from surface dimming, but the overall response to aerosol absorption more closely resembles the response to its surface dimming than to its atmospheric heating. These findings provide a novel decomposition of absorbing aerosol’s impacts on regional climate and demonstrate that the response cannot be expected to follow the sign of absorption’s top-of-atmosphere or even atmospheric radiative perturbation.
Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity impedes accurate climate projections. While the inter-model spread is known to arise primarily from differences in cloud feedback, the exact processes responsible for the spread remain unclear. To help identify some key sources of uncertainty, we use a developmental version of the next generation Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global climate model (GCM) to construct a tightly controlled set of GCMs where only the formulation of convective precipitation is changed. The different models provide simulation of present-day climatology of comparable quality compared to the CMIP5 model ensemble. We demonstrate that model estimates of climate sensitivity can be strongly affected by the manner through which cumulus cloud condensate is converted into precipitation in a model’s convection parameterization, processes that are only crudely accounted for in GCMs. In particular, two commonly used methods for converting cumulus condensate into precipitation can lead to drastically different climate sensitivity, as estimated here with an atmosphere/land model by increasing sea surface temperatures uniformly and examining the response in the top-of-atmosphere energy balance. The effect can be quantified through a bulk convective detrainment efficiency, which measures the ability of cumulus convection to generate condensate per unit precipitation. The model differences, dominated by shortwave feedbacks, come from broad regimes ranging from large-scale ascent to subsidence regions. Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and our current inability to find a clear observational constraint that favors one version of our model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity needs to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections.
We assess the uptake, transport and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and
heat over the period 1861 to 2005 in a new set of coupled carbon-climate Earth
System models conducted for the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5), with a particular focus on the Southern Ocean. Simulations show the
Southern Ocean south of 30°S, occupying 30% of global surface ocean area, accounts
for 43 ± 3% (42 ± 5 Pg C) of anthropogenic CO2 and 75 ± 22% (23 ± 9 *1022J) of heat
uptake by the ocean over the historical period. Northward transport out of the Southern
Ocean is vigorous, reducing the storage to 33 ± 6 Pg anthropogenic carbon and 12 ± 7
*1022J heat in the region. The CMIP5 models as a class tend to underestimate the
observational-based global anthropogenic carbon storage, but simulate trends in global
ocean heat storage over the last fifty years within uncertainties of observation-based
estimates. CMIP5 models suggest global and Southern Ocean CO2 uptake have been
largely unaffected by recent climate variability and change. Anthropogenic carbon and
heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is
more structured than ocean carbon storage. Our results highlight the significance of
the Southern Ocean for the global climate and as the region where models differ the
most in representation of anthropogenic CO2 and in particular heat uptake.
Frölicher, Thomas L., and David J Paynter, July 2015: Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales. Environmental Research Letters, 10(7), DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002. Abstract
The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions.
Paynter, David J., and Thomas L Frölicher, October 2015: Sensitivity of radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake and climate feedbacks to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120(19), DOI:10.1002/2015JD023364. Abstract
We use both prescribed sea surface temperature and fully coupled versions of the GFDL CM3 climate model to analyze the sensitivity of radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake and climate feedbacks to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols considered separately over the 1870 to 2005 period. The global anthropogenic aerosol climate feedback parameter (− α) of -1.13 ± 0.33 Wm-2K-1 is indistinguishable from the greenhouse gas − α of -1.28 ± 0.23 Wm-2K-1. However, this greenhouse gas climate feedback parameter is about 50% larger than that obtained for CM3 from a widely used linear extrapolation method of regressing Earth's top of atmosphere imbalance against surface air temperature change in idealized CO2 radiative forcing experiments. This implies that the global mean surface temperature change due to forcing over the 1870-2005 period is 50% smaller than that predicted using the climate feedback parameter obtained from idealized experiments. This difference results from time-dependence in α, which makes the radiative forcing obtained by the fixed SST method incompatible with that obtained by the linear extrapolation method fitted over the first 150 years after CO2 is quadrupled. On a regional scale, α varies greatly between the greenhouse gas and aerosol case. This suggests that the relationship between transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity obtained from idealized CO2 simulations, using techniques such as regional feedback analysis and heat uptake efficacy, may not hold for other forcing scenarios.
Pincus, Robert, Eli J Mlawer, L Oreopoulos, A S Ackerman, S Baek, Manfred Brath, Stefan A Buehler, K E Cady‐Pereira, Jason N S Cole, J-L Dufresne, M Kelley, J Li, James Manners, David J Paynter, Romain Roehrig, M Sekiguchi, and M Daniel Schwarzkopf, July 2015: Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), DOI:10.1002/2015GL064291. Abstract
This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally-validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/M2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.
Paynter, David J., and V Ramaswamy, September 2014: Investigating the impact of the shortwave water vapor continuum upon climate simulations using GFDL global models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(8), DOI:10.1002/2014JD021881. Abstract
We have added the BPS-MTCKD 2.0 parameterization for the shortwave water vapor continuum to the GFDL global model. We find that inclusion of the shortwave continuum in the fixed SST case (AM3) results in a similar increase in shortwave absorption and heating rates to that seen for the ‘benchmark’ line-by-line radiative transfer calculations. The surface energy budget adjusts to the inclusion of the shortwave continuum predominantly through a decrease in both surface latent and sensible heat. This leads to a decrease in tropical convection and a subsequent 1% reduction in tropical rainfall. The inclusion of the shortwave continuum in the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model (CM3) yields similar results, but a smaller overall reduction of 0.5% in tropical rainfall due to global warming of ~0.1 K linked to enhanced near infrared absorption. We also investigated the impact of adding a stronger version of BPS-MTCKD (version 1.1) to the GCM. In most cases we found that the GCM responds in a similar manner to both continua, but that the strength of the response scales with the level of absorbed shortwave radiation. Global warming experiments were run in both AM3 and CM3. The shortwave continuum was found to cause a 7 to 15% increase in clear-sky global dimming depending upon whether the stronger or weaker continuum version was used. Neither version resulted in a significant change to the climate sensitivity.
A newly formulated empirical water vapor continuum (the "BPS continuum") is employed, in conjunction with ERA-40 data, to advance the understanding of how variations in the water vapor profile can alter the impact of the continuum on the Earth's clear-sky radiation budget. Three metrics are investigated; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), Longwave surface downwelling radiation (SDR) and shortwave absorption (SWA). We have also performed a detailed geographical analysis on the impact of the BPS continuum upon these metrics and compared the results to those predicted by the commonly-used MT CKD model. The globally averaged differences in these metrics when calculated with MT CKD 2.5 versus BPS were found to be 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.8% for OLR, SDR and SWA respectively. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty upon these calculations is explored using the uncertainty estimates of the BPS model. The radiative response of the continuum to global changes in atmospheric temperature and water vapor content are also investigated. For the latter, the continuum accounts for up to 35% of the change in OLR and 65% of the change in SDR, brought about by an increase in water vapor in the tropics.
Paynter, David J., and V Ramaswamy, October 2011: An assessment of recent water vapor continuum measurements upon longwave and shortwave radiative transfer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116, D20302, DOI:10.1029/2010JD015505. Abstract
Recent measurements of the water vapor continuum have been combined to form an empirical continuum termed the BPS continuum model. This covers the 800 to 7500 cm−1 spectral region for the self continuum and most of the major absorbing spectral regions between 240 and 7300 cm−1 for the foreign continuum. Longwave (i.e., absorption/emission of terrestrial radiation between 1 and 3000 cm−1) and shortwave (i.e., using solar radiation as a source and considering atmospheric absorption between 1000 and 17000 cm−1) line by line (LBL) radiative transfer calculations have been performed for clear-sky conditions in three standard test atmospheres using line data from the HITRAN database. This has allowed BPS to be compared to the commonly used CKD and MT CKD continuum models, in addition to conducting a more detailed investigation of the separate roles of the self and foreign continua than previously provided in the literature. Using uncertainties obtained from multiple experimental studies it has been possible to estimate the upper and lower limits of the effects due to the continuum in many spectral regions. The outgoing longwave radiation in a midlatitude-summer (MLS) atmosphere calculated by all three continuum models agree to within 0.6 Wm−2 with a ±1.1 Wm−2 estimated uncertainty. The corresponding values for surface downwelling radiation are 1.3 Wm−2 ± 2.5 Wm−2. For shortwave absorption, the different models agree within 1.0%, with an estimated uncertainty of ±1.7%. However, the three models differ in the amount by which the self and foreign continua contribute to shortwave absorption.
Paynter, David J., I V Ptashnik, K P Shine, K M Smith, R McPheat, and R G Williams, November 2009: Laboratory measurements of the water vapor continuum in the 1200–8000 cm−1 region between 293 K and 351 K. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114, D21301, DOI:10.1029/2008JD011355. Abstract
Laboratory Fourier transform spectroscopy of pure water vapor and water vapor mixed with air has been conducted between 1200 and 8000 cm−1 and at temperatures between 293 and 351 K with the purpose of detecting and characterizing the water vapor continuum. The spectral features of the continuum within the major water absorption bands are presented and compared where possible to those from previous experimental studies and to the commonly used MT_CKD and CKD models. It was observed that in the main, both models adequately capture the general spectral form of the continuum; however, there were a number of exceptions. Overall, there is no evidence to indicate that MT_CKD is an improvement upon the older CKD model in these spectral regions. There was generally good agreement between our results and those of other experimental investigators. The general mathematical forms of the self-continuum temperature dependence, given by both Roberts et al. (1976) and CKD/MT_CKD, fit well to the experimental continuum in these spectral regions. However, the range of temperatures over which we made measurements is not sufficient to discriminate between these two forms or to exclude the possibility of other forms of temperature dependence being more appropriate. At the same time, the actual parameters currently used in CKD/MT_CKD to describe the temperature dependence in many spectral regions cannot reproduce the observed strong spectral variation in the temperature dependence. It has not been possible to make definitive conclusions about the magnitude of the continuum absorption in the far wings of the absorption bands investigated here.
